DAY ONE: TODAY AND TONIGHT A POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM KANSAS CITY TO BOONVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS ALONG A DRY LINE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AFTER SUNSET BRINGING AREAS SOUTH OF AN ATCHISON, KANSAS TO KANSAS CITY LINE AND WEST OF KANSAS CITY TO CLINTON LINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI, THUS ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.