Kentucky Derby 134

[artcarney_agr]

Be sure to go to the BBC Lounge and pick your horse!

http://www.bbcboards.net...81632

[JR19]

This is going to be a tough Derby to pick a winner. I watched the Oaks on TV and the track was sloppy. With tomorrows weather it may just stay sloppy. Churchill is one of the fastest drying dirt tracks around but how late will the rain hang around tomorrow.

If the track is muddy/heavy Smooth Air is two for two in the mud. He was 2nd to Big Brown in the Florida derby...however Smooth Air has had a small fever within the last two weeks and his last workout at 3/8 was 38 and change Big Brown was 35 and change.

On paper the speed of Big Brown is going to be hard to beat but it can easily be done. Yes he won the Florida Derby staring in the outside (12) gate but he broke clean and lead wire to wire. If he does not get a good start what is going to happen when he gets a little mud in his face on a heavy track. There is also more odds against him. The last time a horse won the derby from the outside was 15 years ago. The last time a horse won with only three starts was 1915. Big Brown is the only horse with a 3 digit speed rating and he will win or loose in the first furlong. What worries me about him is his lack of experience on a off track conditions.


Colonel John had an excellent work out and appears to be on top of things. He has only ran on poly syenthic/dirt tracks. This will be his first true dirt race and it might be in the slop. He is bred on both sides to go long distance. This is the first time any of the horses have went a mile and 1/4 but he is a big horse that can stand the extra 1/8 mile.

Another horse I would have my eye on is Court Vision. His last three races were at a mile 1/8 and this horse is a closer. He can lay back and then turn it on in the last 3/8.

I will take Big Brown to win and give me an exacta box with Colonel John, Smooth Air and Court Vision. win place or show will not pay much .Let Big Brown have a bad start out of the gate and finish dead last and I will gladly cash an exacta ticket.

[JC25]

Big Brown dominated this years field no horse on that track was in his class.

UPS is gonna love this marketing theme for the year.