Anybody buying today? Or waiting longer?

[Bassin08]

With the wife's career path we don't have the ability to watch for deals. We just go when and where we need to. We already know that there's a chance we will have to move again in another year or two, but we believe she has a really good chance at moving up again while staying in Wisconsin. At which point we'll buy some acres and build a new home, unless the right one becomes available.

I know it's still early, but the wife really loves it there. She thinks she was born in the wrong state. The new house and neighborhood is huge upgrade to our standard of living.

I think I know the house you bought.

[davidsa]

I don't watch Jim Cramer much but had his show on last night. He had a stat that when the S&P was up 5 days after a big decline it had hit a new high by end of year 10 of 10 times. Or something like this. Seems like this market wants to run and just needs positive news and an administration to move aside

[TownesZ21]

I don't watch Jim Cramer much but had his show on last night. He had a stat that when the S&P was up 5 days after a big decline it had hit a new high by end of year 10 of 10 times. Or something like this. Seems like this market wants to run and just needs positive news and an administration to move aside

I would agree with that, things were about as good as they get from a market perspective (debt is always an issue, not very new) before tariffs and policy got in the way. If they settle, we at least get close to where we were which is still solid upside, especially if you bought the dip. If policy gets worse again, watch out below. It's not fun having your money at the mercy of emotions but it is where we are.

[NitroZ7]

I would agree with that, things were about as good as they get from a market perspective (debt is always an issue, not very new) before tariffs and policy got in the way. If they settle, we at least get close to where we were which is still solid upside, especially if you bought the dip. If policy gets worse again, watch out below. It's not fun having your money at the mercy of emotions but it is where we are.

It is funny. When I was younger and just started investing and the dot.com bust hit I sort of thought that wouldn't happen to me I would have been out. Now that I am more invested I know we can control some things like our equity selection and how much in equities we have invested etc. but at the end of the day we are all to some degree along for the ride.

[davidsa]

we are certainly just along for the ride!

that the mentality that every dip is a "buying opportunity" is one sign to me we are in for a real "dip" soon. It is as the famous man from the great Nebraska said in essence- when everyone is greedy, be fearful. When everyone is fearful, be greedy. While we have lots of negative market sentiment now, I think most people are still greedy.

[Bassin08]

It is funny. When I was younger and just started investing and the dot.com bust hit I sort of thought that wouldn't happen to me I would have been out. Now that I am more invested I know we can control some things like our equity selection and quitiedhow much in equities we have invested etc. but at the end of the day we are all to some degree along for the ride.

I agree with this. Even though I only have a 20% position in equities, I still have a concern in FDIC accounts and fixed annuities. The older I get, the less trust I have.

[NitroZ7]

we are certainly just along for the ride!

that the mentality that every dip is a "buying opportunity" is one sign to me we are in for a real "dip" soon. It is as the famous man from the great Nebraska said in essence- when everyone is greedy, be fearful. When everyone is fearful, be greedy. While we have lots of negative market sentiment now, I think most people are still greedy.

I like what Peter Lynch said also: "it is always darkest right before pitch black"

[davidsa]

I agree with this. Even though I only have a 20% position in equities, I still have a concern in FDIC accounts and fixed annuities. The older I get, the less trust I have.

it is not a question of trust to me in any way. The nearly 100 year SP500 return curve shows how the system behaves and I don't have any reason to believe the next 100 won't have a similar pattern. In my view, as we grow older we have less time for the market to correct and then grow. If you retired in 1930, you needed to wait until about 1960 to have seen your 1930 portfolio really grow. If you retired in 1967, you needed to wait until about 1985. If you retired in 2000, you needed to wait until about 2020 to have seen your account recover and go on a big run. These are all +10 years to get back to a market high then roughly 10 to grow.

[davidsa]

I like what Peter Lynch said also: "it is always darkest right before pitch black"

his book was awesome! I like the statement- when I'm at a cocktail party and everyone is talking about x stock, i go sell it. I saw the essence of this statement in the dotcom bust and housing bust.

[NitroZ7]

his book was awesome! I like the statement- when I'm at a cocktail party and everyone is talking about x stock, i go sell it. I saw the essence of this statement in the dotcom bust and housing bust.

And lately I hear all the people talking on CNBC about diversifying with private credit. To me this is now the riskiest segment of the market if we go into a deep downturn. That would be the last place I would invest now.

[TownesZ21]

It is funny. When I was younger and just started investing and the dot.com bust hit I sort of thought that wouldn't happen to me I would have been out. Now that I am more invested I know we can control some things like our equity selection and how much in equities we have invested etc. but at the end of the day we are all to some degree along for the ride.

Very much so. Unless you do this for a living there is almost zero chance you can fade the macro, and if you do do it for a living, the math says your chances aren't much better and by trying more often than not you do worse than the market.

[TownesZ21]

we are certainly just along for the ride!

that the mentality that every dip is a "buying opportunity" is one sign to me we are in for a real "dip" soon. It is as the famous man from the great Nebraska said in essence- when everyone is greedy, be fearful. When everyone is fearful, be greedy. While we have lots of negative market sentiment now, I think most people are still greedy.

That's where it gets tricky. He was clearly talking about buying the dips as that is when others are fearful, the problem is so many have listened to him that retail is now greedy when the professionals are fearful.

[TownesZ21]

And lately I hear all the people talking on CNBC about diversifying with private credit. To me this is now the riskiest segment of the market if we go into a deep downturn. That would be the last place I would invest now.

I agree with that. That's a big boy game and I'm not a big boy in this game.