Market action certainly doesn't give me a warm fuzzy bullish feeling
Market action certainly doesn't give me a warm fuzzy bullish feeling
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
Me either. I think the news announcement yesterday sparked short covering and now we are heading back down.Originally Posted by boneil
Giving back everything it gained yesterday. Not encouraging.
Trader Heaven! If I could just trade on Truth Social posts within milliseconds I could become a Billionaire by year end.
Or get info ahead of time…billionaire by week’s end
So much this, the China tariffs are still on and that is the most important one in the world for us. Also, the one that has the power.
I am eyeballing a few buys but haven't pulled the trigger yet. I would guess we have more red coming.
I did some tax loss harvesting and bought T with the proceeds.
Not just still on, but through the roof!
Keep your eye on truth social and bet the farm when he tells you to....... Or don't because he may be faking you out like Monday.....
This is so criminal it's not funny and they don't even try to hide it anymore.
What do you make of weekend announcements?
It has to rip Monday..... Until something else comes out on T.S.
When the announcements hit about the exemptions I thought, bottom is in. The bond market is in control, we'll get enough exemptions to make the tariffs nearly worthless. And, this turmoil is enough to cause weak economic data that will make the Fed cut rates. The market will look past the next quarter or two and start pricing in the economy 9 to 12 months from now, which will include lower rates, increased govt spending, and maybe some QE.
BUT then there was some new announcements.........."the exemptions are temporary".
How THE F can any business operate under this BS. Add in the fact that the exemptions mainly help companies like AAPL and NVDA. Well what about small business? what about the farmers? Is any small business gonna hire under this turmoil? The amount of small businesses that will get wiped out in the coming months if the tariffs and turmoil continue will be catastrophic.
SO my guess is that we gap up in the futures tonight but I could see us ending Monday red. The market can't price earnings in this environment. It's gonna move from one headline to another until we get stability. Stability might happen in a day or months from now.
The good news is, dollar cost averaging is gonna work really well during this time of uncertainty.
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
I'm thinking it at least 50% chance we are starting a multi-year bear market. I will be talking with my advisor in a few weeks about dollar cost averaging that would work in if that was the case.
2024 Phoenix 818
2024 merc 175 pro xs 3B411947
Exemptions are now off?????? At this rate they're gonna crash the economy
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
Boneil
WH is trying to intentionally cause a recession so they can make themselves look like they are doing a great job bringing things back within the next couple of yrs, so voters can be once again convinced of a great job the GOP is doing hoping to keep control camouflaging their failures.
Well, it sucks to be us getting caught in the middle of this power grab.
3-ish years to the next election is an eternity. Most people have short attention spans and will have forgotten about the angst this caused and the plan will work.Boneil
WH is trying to intentionally cause a recession so they can make themselves look like they are doing a great job bringing things back within the next couple of yrs, so voters can be once again convinced of a great job the GOP is doing hoping to keep control camouflaging their failures.
Well, it sucks to be us getting caught in the middle of this power grab.
He/him
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I don't think any administration would really want a recession but I do think they want the short and long term interest rates to go down because of the immense costs of financing our debt. Also Trump is a real estate guy and just about every real estate person I know is screaming about rates and how they are killing them. The crazy thing is this has had the opposite effect and longer term rates are rising because foreign capital is leaving the country. A spike in interest rates brought down Silicon Valley bank so it makes me wonder if they spike if we are going to start seeing concerns over bank failures.
@boneil...... Great overview, couldn't agree more.
I still held my nose and bought some Mega Cap today as I thinking it will be up a fair bit in a few years..... But it could easily go down more before it goes up.
To your point about how does this help small business or farmers..... I can't imagine many still believe that one. Where in his history has he ever cared about the little guy? Better deal for the country, well his version for sure but his version will be for the people that support him with major dollars. Everything is for sale, he proved that with his "Gold Card". This is a stock comment, I would lean toward the stock of those that have bought favors. Look to who contributed to the inauguration to get special carve outs in the tariffs (Apple just did) and unless they have a blow up look for Musk to get a huge hand out. He already got one huge government contract and an infomercial, they will try to give him more but I'm not sure it will offset how toxic he is with most of the world.
I agree they don't really want a recession and they do want to lower rates..... but they are screwing it up bigly.....
They are also trying to work "the art of the deal" on the world, but those are simply bully tactics and they only work if "you hold the cards". The problem now is their b.s. arguments don't hold up with people smarter than they are and they are getting their bluff called. There will be a few better deals cut, but it is very much to be seen if the net result will be positive..... and that is being polite.
Well I just received my quarterly statement from my advisor and my accounts are down less than 4% from January through March. I can live with that. I'm no fan of what's happening or how's it happening, at least some big changes are happening to try to turn the ship instead of going down the same destructive path.
All sheep are eventually led to slaughter
Not debating all of it, but "Liberation Day" that was one of the worst in history for the markets was April 2nd..... so not reflected in your statements. There is time for things to recover before the next quarter so if that is your timeline to look you may be ok..... but the recovery we have seen so far was because of the walkbacks. If they keep walking back the tariffs before we hit a recession we might be ok, if not look out below.
The drops we just had percentage wise are not even in the top 20.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...strial_Average
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