Not selling anything but I feel pretty confident we will get one.
Not selling anything but I feel pretty confident we will get one.
oh you have to give us more than that. What happens in May?
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
That is when I think I am going to retireOriginally Posted by boneil
cheers to that!!!!That is when I think I am going to retire
not crash talk
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They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
After May comes June.
"Sell in May and go away"
If we could time market turn downs and upsides, we would all be millionaires.
There is currently a lot of uncertainty with economic policy. I see no way job cuts, budget cuts, and tariffs are going to be good for consumers or the market. I don't believe a tax cut will even register as a blimp on the radar to offset it. There was euphoria in the market during a hell of a run before crashing hard in 2008 wiping out 8 years of gains going all the way back to 1996, and taking another 4 years to recover, aided by the government pumping Trillions of dollars into the economy.
The market has been on a roll, with market valuations at all time highs. The market can be more fragile than we think. At 65 now, I have a much shorter term perspective, and am moving to fixed income while policies shake out, and will see how earnings are affected 6-9 months out, and how the market reacts, then reevaluate. I'm a lot calmer now.
GLTA
I thought everyone on this forum was a millionaire?"Sell in May and go away"
If we could time market turn downs and upsides, we would all be millionaires.
There is currently a lot of uncertainty with economic policy. I see no way job cuts, budget cuts, and tariffs are going to be good for consumers or the market. I don't believe a tax cut will even register as a blimp on the radar to offset it. There was euphoria in the market during a hell of a run before crashing hard in 2008 wiping out 8 years of gains going all the way back to 1996, and taking another 4 years to recover, aided by the government pumping Trillions of dollars into the economy.
The market has been on a roll, with market valuations at all time highs. The market can be more fragile than we think. At 65 now, I have a much shorter term perspective, and am moving to fixed income while policies shake out, and will see how earnings are affected 6-9 months out, and how the market reacts, then reevaluate. I'm a lot calmer now.
GLTA
The difference between 2008 and now is, the government cannot dig the hole any deeper by giving away more free money.
What is GLTA?
The hole can be infinitely deeper. We haven't even used negative interest rates yet.
GLTA good luck to all
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
I think there are a lot of millionaires by net worth on BBC. The problem is a million dollars is not what it used to be.
It can buy you a nice bass boat and truck to park next to your mobile home.
We haven’t started to buy war bonds yet either.
I'm just glad I didn't invest in that markey stock
"If People Concentrated on the Really Important Things in Life, There'd be a Shortage of Fishing Poles." - Doug Larson
"Peace is not the absence of turmoil but the presence of God" Jo-Ann Thomack
The markets are front running Nitro's retirement
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
They are a big portion of mine also and I am on the edge of time needed to recover from a crash before I would be looking to use investment more for dividends and interest than growth. I'm still holding what I have. mostly mutual funds but even they would take a hit if everything goes south like in 08. Keeping my fingers and toes crossed if the downturn most people expect comes it is not too deep.
"If People Concentrated on the Really Important Things in Life, There'd be a Shortage of Fishing Poles." - Doug Larson
"Peace is not the absence of turmoil but the presence of God" Jo-Ann Thomack
I like to view it as the market is going to make Roth conversions cheaper from a tax standpoint
One thing that happens when worry hits is if you put your current allocation in something like Morningstar it will analyze it and show the worst and best % from the past. If you are 50/50 equities and fixed income and we get a 50% crash then you may only be down 25%. That would still hurt but not catastrophic.
2008 would have not been such a big deal or maybe a big deal at all if it had not followed a miserable 2000, 2001 and 2002. It felt like the market was just getting going and then a 37% drop. for those of us mid-way through a career, it felt like we got hit in the junk very hard. BUT, If you invested 100 on Jan 1, 2008 and held it for 10 years you had $224. So a 125% gain. The key is you needed to hold the investment for 10 years. If you were forced to sell stocks in 2008, you would not have recovered. You can google Sequencing risk to understand this risk and is why most financial professionals suggest you be able to retire on roughly 4% of your portfolio in the early years and assuming normal retirement ages of 60-67.
That is why the 50/50 ish mix mentioned by Nitro is important but it also assumes that your 50% fixed income is large enough to fund you for 5 to 10 years so those equities can recover. This should be true if you can live on a 4% withdrawal less any taxes due.
The challenge I have with getting totally out of the market is when to get back in. When the economy hurts the news is so negative that I don't feel like taking any risk. Then next thing you know the market has jumped 20% in a matter of weeks and now I'd be asking myself if it was a false run. So if I was to pull out, I would set date on when I'd start to average the money in over a period of time to take trying to hit a real bottom out of the equation.
I've stated this several times- if you missed the best 30 days in the market from 2000 to 2020 you basically missed out on 10.x % annual gains over 20 year and your result was something like .5% Total. This was given to me by a financial consultant about a year ago and it shocked me.
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You are absolutely right about a million dollars not what it used to be, truth is even a few mills are not worth much these days when everything has gone multiples in cost.
Always a chance of that happening. I am approaching 60 and I have a plan to retire no later than 62. I have always said stay diversified! I lost a ton in 08 but didn’t knee jerk sell and held firm that was many years ago and I am so glad I did. Now I was a lot younger than I am now. Today I admit I am moving some to money markets getting ready to retire.
Last edited by pikeman_66; 03-01-2025 at 09:41 PM.
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