No clue how 2023 will go?

[Charles Prestridge]

I have worked in manufacturing for 35 years. I have seen alot of ups/downs. Hard to determine what to expect this year.

Had a piece of equipment delivered last week, 6 weeks early.

New production equipment that was taking 12 months for delivery, was quoted as 4 month delivery (due to openings in supply chains).

Constant back/forth on what is the “new” order rate from customers. Last few years, the ordering has been high due to everybody getting caught short of product. Are current lulls in orders due to inventory levels catching up and getting too high, or are customers getting pessimistic about their orders?

People are still eating out like crazy, and seem to be spending money.

I do not know if we can get thru year, treading water, will see a big decline, or some amount of gains.

[XingEyeballs]

In my opinion it’s hard to look at the current economy rationally, when so many things don’t add up. I think it’s any one’s guess. We’re seeing some sectors catching up, some laying off, and some with 12 month wait times.

[XingEyeballs]

In my opinion it’s hard to look at the current economy rationally, when so many things don’t add up. I think it’s any one’s guess. We’re seeing some sectors catching up, some laying off, and some with 12 month wait times.

And the consumer is even harder to figure out right now, they seem to be shopping and spending emotionally.

[NitroZ7]

There was a lot of pull forward when supply chains were tight. Many companies double ordered (especially in the chip sector) so they had enough and then many companies got caught with excess inventory. A lot of times different parts of the supply chain see things first. I wish I could find the video but there is a name for this. Basically the downstream people see it first while the further upstream producers see it last. I will try and post the video if I can find it.

[NitroZ7]

A bit dated and not saying his projections are accurate but it is an interesting look at how different parts of the supply chain get information. This also may explain why the Fed may keep rates higher for longer for fear of inflation coming back if rates drop alongside asset prices dropping.

[boneil]

I certainly don't understand what's happening in the market and economy. I know we put off buying a house for a bit longer because of interest rates. But, I'm still seeing an active market in my area. IMO earnings forecast have sucked and yet the market stays up. Look at NVDA, makes zero sense to me. NVDA earnings forecast is significantly lower compared to a year ago, and yet the price is the same, and they did an offering and yet, price stays up.

I feel like we should test the lows, rates higher for longer and QT still going. There's no end in sight for tightening, I think. But.....then we get really good job numbers, maybe the economy is more resilient and we can keep it going. Maybe earnings stay flat for a while and then growth returns later down the road. Maybe there's just no reason to sell, and no reason to buy. We just sit here for awhile longer.

I do know it felt good getting that monthly JEPQ dividend hitting my account this morning.

[Charles Prestridge]

Thanks for all your thoughts. I am so blessed and hoping to avoid a large crash.

I was talking to a machinery supplier yesterday. He said, everything is just weird. Some companies have indicated zero capital dollars for 2023 and some companies are investing heavily.

We have four adult children with good jobs/careers and they are really good persons. Whenever, I think about any negatives with the economy, I try to revert to being grateful for all my blessings.

[Rangerdeepv]

Good time to stay low and keep the $$$$ in a pretty safe place. This market is nuts and the people causing all the cycles are nuttier. Took quite the haircut last year and it seems it is going to go lower yet before it is all over.

[boneil]

I think the lows are in for the year.

Of course, news or data could change my mind, but I'm very long stocks

[IMhooked]

No one knows anything or has a crystal ball. Tune out the noise. Realize the economy is cyclical and part of the journey. Have an investment plan and stick to it--Stay the course and over the long term you will be wealthy.

[emerson biggens]

Good time to stay low and keep the $$$$ in a pretty safe place. This market is nuts and the people causing all the cycles are nuttier. Took quite the haircut last year and it seems it is going to go lower yet before it is all over.

I think you're spot on, hide your eggs...