Thread: Tesla

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  1. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #21
    There was more positive China insurance data this morning. It happens every year. China has month long holidays and the car sales data comes out weak. The bears prance around talking about this is it, the end of Tesla, the competition is here......then a few weeks later car data comes out and demand is as strong as ever. Wall street is pricing in little to zero earnings growth this year for Tesla. What happens if earnings growth grows 50% instead? At some point this year mega pack will start to get noticed by wall street. And the IRA will also impact earnings this year.
    Thanos was the hero

  2. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #22
    Earnings on the 19th. I don't like the setup, up almost 100% in 3 months with earnings coming in a couple weeks. I would rather sell some now, chase a little on good earnings or get better prices at lower levels than see some recent profits turn to losses. Basically sold what I had on margin from the last couple months
    Thanos was the hero

  3. Member tcesni's Avatar
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    #23
    I am surprised that the unexpected reduction in oil production did not do more to support Tesla today.

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    #24
    I've got a few shares of Tesla nothing ridiculous, but was curious if things like starlink, the solar program, and some of Elon's other creations would fall under the umbrella of this stock? Anybody have any insight on this?

  5. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #25
    Quote Originally Posted by northstar View Post
    I've got a few shares of Tesla nothing ridiculous, but was curious if things like starlink, the solar program, and some of Elon's other creations would fall under the umbrella of this stock? Anybody have any insight on this?

    A couple years ago, Musk stated that he would see to it that TSLA shareholders would get an opportunity to buy SpaceX stock when it IPOs. That was the first time I bought TSLA shares. I then started learning more about the company and have been a bull ever since.

    I believe SpaceX will spin off Starlink and IPO sometime in the near future. Musk has said they would IPO after the company had steady cashflow. Which sucks because the longer they wait the more it's worth and the more expensive the IPO will be. I have some ideas that will make Starlink and SpaceX extremely valuable. The Musk haters will say Starlink is over valued, it's AOL 2.0.... But the military prospects for satellite constellations and the heavy lift abilities of Starship are $$$$$$$

    The solar stuff is already under Tesla.

    I haven't heard anything about an IPO for Neuralink or The Boring Company.
    Thanos was the hero

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    #26
    Yeah, I think the Starlink deal will be the real cash cow. Appreciate the response.

  7. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #27
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...ctory-shanghai


    IMO, Mega pack factories are not priced into the stock. Between the Lathrop, Nevada and now Shanghai mega pack factory there's 100 GWh of energy storage production by 2025. Or roughly $50 billion in revenue. Tesla plans to produce 1TWh of energy storage per year by 2030+. Estimates for megapack margins range from 15-50%. 20% margin X $50bil = $10bil of profit per year for 100GWh. This doesn't include services associated with the megapacks. Also, revenue is not fully recognized until the batteries are installed and in service, so there is a lag for when the mega pack hits the income statement.

    Sometime this year the market will start recognizing megapack.
    Thanos was the hero

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    #28
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...ctory-shanghai

    Sometime this year the market will start recognizing megapack.

    Not throwing a lot of new money at TSLA but I am adding a little at a time from dividends and proceeds when the dips occur. I'd like to build up to a hundred or so shares. There have been a few swings but I haven't bought and sold on them just because I don't want to sell and have it go up and I can't replace what I sold for the same price. Just going to look long term and hope it works out in the end. My average is a little under 188.

  9. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #29
    Thanos was the hero

  10. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #30
    I think the earnings report and call was bad and the stock will suffer for many months. Looks like selling calls and puts are in my future.
    Thanos was the hero

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    #31
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    I think the earnings report and call was bad and the stock will suffer for many months. Looks like selling calls and puts are in my future.
    Looks like I'm going to be adding to my shares while they are on sale. I just hate to be behind. This will make my buying average look a little better. Still buying to hold for the long term.

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    #32
    Quote Originally Posted by g2072 View Post
    Looks like I'm going to be adding to my shares while they are on sale. I just hate to be behind. This will make my buying average look a little better. Still buying to hold for the long term.
    Same here
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  13. Member Matt D's Avatar
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    #33
    Quote Originally Posted by g2072 View Post
    Looks like I'm going to be adding to my shares while they are on sale. I just hate to be behind. This will make my buying average look a little better. Still buying to hold for the long term.
    Doubled my holding today on the drop. Still isn't huge but it's getting there.

  14. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #34
    I would suggest reviewing the earnings report and listening to the earnings call. There was some, IMO, pretty big bombshells.

    Last quarter they said there was a floor on margins at 20%. Now they say the floor for margins lowered, and they will lower further with the price cuts announced this quarter.
    Musk, " Tesla being in a uniquely strong position, because we could sell cars for ZERO profit now and yield tremendous profit in the future". Thats a realy bold statement and something that shouldn't be taken lightly. Basically, I think there's a chance that Tesla will cut prices drastically in a recession. How long will the recesson last? We could see a few quarters of little profit, or little to no eps growth. Could we get a quarter of an eps loss?

    In alot of ways, they're following the AAPL play book, sell phones for cheap and make the profits with services. I agree with that plan but I didn't think they would be willing to sell the cars at no profit.

    Musk also hinted at geo-political issues popping up. I think we all know theres a chance at a China/Taiwan issue, but I think it's noteworthy that Musk mentioned a geo issue.

    I think we see a few quarters of real pain. In hopes of future services profits. Dare I say we revisit $100. I think we could, especially if someone decides to sell shares to fund his new AI company.
    Thanos was the hero

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    #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt D View Post
    Doubled my holding today on the drop. Still isn't huge but it's getting there.

    I added a little just to lower my average price but I'm not spending a lot right now on anything. I'm still wary of the overall market. I'm rolling my dividends back in but I'm keeping the bulk of my buying cash on hold right now.

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    #36
    I dont plan on buying right now, rolled all my cash into money market.

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    #37
    Did anyone see that TSLA segment on Last Call?

  18. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #38
    The guy who was on Last Call is the perfect example of the Tesla Cult. Every time a Tesla bull offers just a bit of criticism, the cult attacks and says "sell your shares". The tesla cult lives in an echo chamber on Twitter and Youtube where they ........each other. And now Musk has started to subscribe to these people on Twitter. Giving these people more incentive to be supportive of everything Musk does. It's a terrible situation and personally, part of me wants Musk to leave Tesla.

    Yes, Musk is distracted. It's obvious and now he's started up an AI company. I think there's a good chance he sells shares to fund this new AI company. Also, Musk changed Twitter's name, does that give him a way to sell shares and not brake his promise that he was done selling shares for Twitter? Either way, I think Musk is now a risk to Tesla. At one time, I was all in on Tesla, now I'm a little more diversified in the portfolio.

    At the end of the day, I still believe Tesla could be a multi trillion company, it's just gonna be a really bumby ride to get there. And with a recession coming, eventually, I think I will get the chance to add at much lower prices.
    Thanos was the hero

  19. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #39
    Shareholder meeting tomorrow afternoon.

    And it was announced that Musk would have an interview with Faber at CNBC immediately following the meeting, at 6pm. I think thats odd. Musk has been doing interviews with many different types of people, but I think this is noteworthy. I could be wrong but I'm thinking there's gonna be some big news at the shareholder meeting and he wants to immediately talk about it with the media to get out front of any headlines.

    The theories I have seen or thought about range from discussing the new Twitter CEO and Musk wants to firmly commit to running Tesla, all the way to Musk is stepping down from Tesla CEO.
    Thanos was the hero

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    #40
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    Shareholder meeting tomorrow afternoon.

    And it was announced that Musk would have an interview with Faber at CNBC immediately following the meeting, at 6pm. I think thats odd. Musk has been doing interviews with many different types of people, but I think this is noteworthy. I could be wrong but I'm thinking there's gonna be some big news at the shareholder meeting and he wants to immediately talk about it with the media to get out front of any headlines.

    The theories I have seen or thought about range from discussing the new Twitter CEO and Musk wants to firmly commit to running Tesla, all the way to Musk is stepping down from Tesla CEO.
    Maybe some solid news on the truck…then a nice pop in the stock.

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