Thread: 2023

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  1. #1
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    2023

    Predictions/ plans, for the year ahead?

    Me, S&P 4300

    Dividend stocks 60%
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  2. Member
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    #2
    I think the start of the year is going to be tough and the end of next year may be better. I am 65% equities right now with the remaining 35% in cds, bonds, treasuries, agencies and investment grade corporates. I may add to the equity position if we get a good buying opportunity next year.

  3. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #3
    I don't know. I'm curious to see how the market does with these interest rates but more importantly how they handle the QT. I can make the case for higher, flat or lower for the year. I only expect high volatility due to QT. We're in uncharted territories. We all know what QE does to the markets. Does QT have the exact opposite affect or maybe it doesn't affect too much.

    I'm starting the year 99% growth stocks. I expect to buy a little dividend stocks this year. I'll keep adding to $TSLA, META and I'm looking for that one special new company to spark my interest.
    Thanos was the hero

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    #4
    Long term bond rates have been really volatile lately. I wonder if this is a result of QT? I have no idea of the duration of the assets the Fed is selling. I have googled it but could not find anything. If they are dumping longer dated treasuries etc. then I would think it would put pressure on the price of bonds and therefore the yields.

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    #5
    Volatility will be the game for the first portion of the year. Ride the highs and buy the dips of your picks.
    Looking for the golden +.

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    #6
    I just opened a new account to gamble on futures and options, so I'll see how it goes. Normal cash going to 401k and individual advisor account...
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    #7
    My prediction, S&P will first retest June lows and will fail going down to the highs in 2020 just before Covid around 3300. It will probably get a bounce there for a while before ultimately going back down to retest the 2020 lows around 2350. Will it hold there, that’s up to you to decide. Valuations will matter moving forward in this environment.

  8. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #8
    First ADP report of the year is pretty hot. What happens if we finish raising rates in a few months QT continues, and we don't see a decline in jobs this year?

    on a side note, I saw some reports that there is no longer any negative yielding debt. I remember hearing about how negative debt would be the ruin of Europe.
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    #9
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    First ADP report of the year is pretty hot. What happens if we finish raising rates in a few months QT continues, and we don't see a decline in jobs this year?

    on a side note, I saw some reports that there is no longer any negative yielding debt. I remember hearing about how negative debt would be the ruin of Europe.
    Their central banks have been raising rates as well. The crazy part over there is they don't have fixed mortgages. They are fixed for a few years and then adjust so people there are going to be facing higher mortgage payments.

  10. Member
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    #10
    The Fed won’t stop raising rates anytime soon with a hot job market with people getting over 7% pay increases YOY for staying at their current job and over 12% for hopping to another company. Rates will continue to rise until unemployment reaches a threshold to bring down demand and interest rates go over the rate of inflation. The Fed is trapped in it’s own game now. Expect higher rates that are not priced in the markets. Look at the Fed minutes released yesterday, they seem terrified of not taming inflation!

  11. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #11
    I don't think they'll need to raise much more. I actually think they could stop here. QT is just starting to work. Money supply is decreasing due to QT. If an increase in money supply caused the inflation, then a decrease in money supply will reverse that. We might be talking about deflation sometime later this year.
    Thanos was the hero

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    #12
    This sort of reminds me of the dot.com crash. Companies spent tons of money on tech to get ready for 2000. After 2000 came the spending was already done so there was a big pullback in tech spending. We had alot of spending on tech as people went remote or hybrida and companies had to spend on their own systems. Much of that has been done already and there was alot of double ordering from alot of industries. Also people are sifting back to more traditional shopping after the pandemic ended. I dont think the drop in tech will be as bad as 2000 but it may take time to come back.

  13. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #13
    I thought I was seeing alot of comparisons that showed the current tech drop as worst than 2000. Not the index itself, but on an individual company comparison. All the companies that don't have earnings already lost most of their value. The amount of Nasdaq companies that have earnings today is significantly more than 2000.
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  14. Member
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    #14
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    I thought I was seeing alot of comparisons that showed the current tech drop as worst than 2000. Not the index itself, but on an individual company comparison. All the companies that don't have earnings already lost most of their value. The amount of Nasdaq companies that have earnings today is significantly more than 2000.
    For those type companies it could very well be worse. I just dont think the broader market will get hit as hard.