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  1. #1
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    Bought some insurance today

    This is a first for me but I actually bought an ATM put on SPY at the 386 strike expiring in March. Used some premium I made selling some puts on TLT, TROW and LRCX and bought the SPY put. Breakeven is 371 so is SPY falls below 371 by March next year then it should be profitable.

  2. Member
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    #2
    I would say that’s a pretty good buy. I’ve been tinkering with the idea of scaling into SPXS. The thing I’m hearing a lot of is how the VIX has been so muted and pushed down lately. I’m not sure what to think of who or what is causing this. Once this selloff really accelerates, watch the VIX to confirm the action.

  3. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #3
    Surprised the VIX is so low. With the commentary I've been hearing lately I would think the VIX would be 25 or more. It wouldn't take much to get to 371 on SPY
    Thanos was the hero

  4. idbefishing
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    #4
    VIX has been almost irrelevant for a couple of weeks now and sometimes it even moved parallel with the indices. Not sure if VIX is still useful for long term trades but DXY has been a better indicator for day trading.

  5. Member
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    #5
    My opinion ... the entire market has moved from rational to emotional.
    If you manage to win the bet, it's pretty much random luck at this point.

  6. Member
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    #6
    Quote Originally Posted by TampaJim View Post
    My opinion ... the entire market has moved from rational to emotional.
    If you manage to win the bet, it's pretty much random luck at this point.
    Not random luck. Just buying a position to hedge downside risk. Sold 3 calls and made $1,200 in premium. Bought the put at $1,400.00. Put out $20.00 net so if the market drops, like I think it will, then I can make some money to offset the long positions. My thesis is that the first quarter will see drops. If I am wrong I lost $200.00 but the risk reward is compelling. I have until March so we will see what happens. I could be right I could be wrong. Same as any other day.

  7. idbefishing
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    #7
    So with inflation down and feds talking 25 pts rate increase, good thing it’s just insurance.

  8. Member
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    #8
    Quote Originally Posted by idbefishing View Post
    So with inflation down and feds talking 25 pts rate increase, good thing it’s just insurance.
    It expires in March so I still have time. Powell is going to be talking in about 2 weeks and we know how that usually goes. On the bright side the puts I sold made more than the premium I paid for the put I bought so it will be a wash at the worst.