Anybody buying today? Or waiting longer?

[TownesZ21]

Back from vacation...but, could not help myself, put a buy order in at $96 for NVDA and it got filled. Still holding at this point with a more liberal stop loss than I normally play with.

Congrats Nitro on the quick sell.

I think that will look really good in the long run, short term? Depends on the tweets but you are already up significantly.

[boneil]

I saw an interesting post this weekend about previous bear markets. When we had bear markets, the month of April was the best performing month. "Sell in May and go away" played out as you would expect, flat to lower through summer with the worst months happening in August and September.

[NitroZ7]

I saw an interesting post this weekend about previous bear markets. When we had bear markets, the month of April was the best performing month. "Sell in May and go away" played out as you would expect, flat to lower through summer with the worst months happening in August and September.

I am actually keeping about 6 years of money in cash, cds, money markets and municipal funds in case we hit a prolonged bear market. After I get through the first 5 years of retirement I may increase the equity position to a higher percentage. I think they call this the reverse glide scope or something like that.

[davidsa]

I am actually keeping about 6 years of money in cash, cds, money markets and municipal funds in case we hit a prolonged bear market. After I get through the first 5 years of retirement I may increase the equity position to a higher percentage. I think they call this the reverse glide scope or something like that.

I taken up a similar strategy. Technically I don't know the definition of a bear market but if you look at the S&P500 chart over all history and look at the last ~15 years we have been on a mostly up path. Then if one looks at the previous 80 years at least three big dips exist that took years to recover. 2000 to 2010 ish was the last such bad spell. I'd call that entire decade a big bear market/correction.

Certanly know one wants such as thing but history says it will repeat at some point. On a positive side, bear markets make great buying opportunities for those with 20+ years before retirement

[NitroZ7]

I taken up a similar strategy. Technically I don't know the definition of a bear market but if you look at the S&P500 chart over all history and look at the last ~15 years we have been on a mostly up path. Then if one looks at the previous 80 years at least three big dips exist that took years to recover. 2000 to 2010 ish was the last such bad spell. I'd call that entire decade a big bear market/correction.

Certanly know one wants such as thing but history says it will repeat at some point. On a positive side, bear markets make great buying opportunities for those with 20+ years before retirement

I think it was Bill Bengen, who developed the 4% rule, who said the period in the 1970s was actually worse than the Great Depression because we got sever deflation during the depression so the real purchasing power that was lost was actually less than the 1970's where you had poor market performance and higher inflation. He subtracted the deflation from the stock losses so if it fell 60% during the depression but your purchasing power increased by 15% then the real loss was actually around 45%. That being said I don't want to see either one of those scenarios.

[Charles Prestridge]

I think it was Bill Bengen, who developed the 4% rule, who said the period in the 1970s was actually worse than the Great Depression because we got sever deflation during the depression so the real purchasing power that was lost was actually less than the 1970's where you had poor market performance and higher inflation. He subtracted the deflation from the stock losses so if it fell 60% during the depression but your purchasing power increased by 15% then the real loss was actually around 45%. That being said I don't want to see either one of those scenarios.

I agree with that analysis, other than the Great Depression was so much harder on my Parents and Grandparents. My Father was born in 1927 and my Mother in 1929. They lived in very rural Alabama before the depression started, and did not see any improvement until the 1940’s.

Having a dug well was a big improvement. Not having to go get water from the spring or creek was huge. Only cash crop was cotton. Everything planted and tended by hand. Not enough money to hire outside help. As a teenager, My Mother would pick 200 pounds of cotton in a long day (if the cotton was thick).

School would start after labor day and all the summer crops were taken care of. My parents would stay out of School, from sometime in October until all the cotton was picked. Once the cotton was ready (depending on the weather) no school until it was picked. If they got their cotton picked, sometimes they could hire-out picking cotton for others. Anything to generate money. Sometimes this would go into December and the Christmas break. In January, they would have alot of school work to make up.

They did not get electricity until the mid 1940’s. Indoor plumbing was not until the late 1950’s and 1960’s.

In the worst of the 1970’s, some would say “They wished they could go back to the good-old days”. My Grandparents would say, “Today is the good-old-days”.

Best Wishes.

[davidsa]

Nitro went where I did not want to go :)

Inflation and deflation aside, the market took 20 years to recover in the Great Depression and roughly 15 years from 1968ish to 1982. Makes a decade long dip not look as bad.

@Charles- everyone I know who actually lived during the Great Depression was changed for life. Even as 90 year olds, they would not spend money on nice things.

[NitroZ7]

I agree with that analysis, other than the Great Depression was so much harder on my Parents and Grandparents. My Father was born in 1927 and my Mother in 1929. They lived in very rural Alabama before the depression started, and did not see any improvement until the 1940’s.

Having a dug well was a big improvement. Not having to go get water from the spring or creek was huge. Only cash crop was cotton. Everything planted and tended by hand. Not enough money to hire outside help. As a teenager, My Mother would pick 200 pounds of cotton in a long day (if the cotton was thick).

School would start after labor day and all the summer crops were taken care of. My parents would stay out of School, from sometime in October until all the cotton was picked. Once the cotton was ready (depending on the weather) no school until it was picked. If they got their cotton picked, sometimes they could hire-out picking cotton for others. Anything to generate money. Sometimes this would go into December and the Christmas break. In January, they would have alot of school work to make up.

They did not get electricity until the mid 1940’s. Indoor plumbing was not until the late 1950’s and 1960’s.

In the worst of the 1970’s, some would say “They wished they could go back to the good-old days”. My Grandparents would say, “Today is the good-old-days”.

Best Wishes.

The person was looking only at it from a retirement standpoint in terms of purchasing power. The Great Depression was bad because almost everyone was living near a subsistence standard except for a small percentage of the wealthy. The standard of living for most was not that high before the Depression but the Depression made it even worse. He was not saying that the Depression was a great time to be alive but he was pointing out that from a retirement and investment standpoint you lost alot more purchasing power during the 1970 period. He was sort of taking all the bad periods in terms of market drops and putting it into todays perspective in terms of a market drop and deflation in 1929 and the 1970's and if either of these happened today then which would be worse for your purchasing power in retirement.

[NitroZ7]

Nitro went where I did not want to go :)

Inflation and deflation aside, the market took 20 years to recover in the Great Depression and roughly 15 years from 1968ish to 1982. Makes a decade long dip not look as bad.

@Charles- everyone I know who actually lived during the Great Depression was changed for life. Even as 90 year olds, they would not spend money on nice things.

My dad grew up in the Bronx during that time and it was horrible. They had a family of 8 living in a small apartment with a shared bathroom in the Bronx. He would have to lug blocks of ice up flights of steps when he was young and in school. He was always frugal. I remember in the 1970's he would buy cases of shaving cream and Pepsi because prices were increasing daily.

[Charles Prestridge]

The person was looking only at it from a retirement standpoint in terms of purchasing power. The Great Depression was bad because almost everyone was living near a subsistence standard except for a small percentage of the wealthy. The standard of living for most was not that high before the Depression but the Depression made it even worse. He was not saying that the Depression was a great time to be alive but he was pointing out that from a retirement and investment standpoint you lost alot more purchasing power during the 1970 period. He was sort of taking all the bad periods in terms of market drops and putting it into todays perspective in terms of a market drop and deflation in 1929 and the 1970's and if either of these happened today then which would be worse for your purchasing power in retirement.

Great insight. Thanks for sharing.

[Charles Prestridge]

Nitro went where I did not want to go :)

Inflation and deflation aside, the market took 20 years to recover in the Great Depression and roughly 15 years from 1968ish to 1982. Makes a decade long dip not look as bad.

@Charles- everyone I know who actually lived during the Great Depression was changed for life. Even as 90 year olds, they would not spend money on nice things.

I agree. My Grandparents were born between 1907 and 1911. It was only in the 1980’s, my Grandmother’s health was not good. He would tell my Mother they had enough money to buy whatever my Grandmother wanted. Of course those wants were limited. They would purchase the Nabisco Premium Saltine crackers, instead of generic saltines.

[Charles Prestridge]

My dad grew up in the Bronx during that time and it was horrible. They had a family of 8 living in a small apartment with a shared bathroom in the Bronx. He would have to lug blocks of ice up flights of steps when he was young and in school. He was always frugal. I remember in the 1970's he would buy cases of shaving cream and Pepsi because prices were increasing daily.

My parents and Grandparents always felt bad for those who grew up in a city during those times. At least they could grow vegetables and had a milk cow most of the time. Those in the city had nothing, when everything collapsed. I am sure in the Bronx, hope was difficult to feel.

My Parents and Grandparents were hopeless a few times, but most of the time, they knew if they worked hard enough, it would get better. They knew work, sacrifices, and education would make each generation better off.

Thanks for all the info yall share.

[TBinKC]

In the worst of the 1970’s, some would say “They wished they could go back to the good-old days”. My Grandparents would say, “Today is the good-old-days”.

Best Wishes.

They were right.. nobody would be happy with a 700sf home with no A/C today

[boneil]

Can we avoid the great depression for a few more weeks please? Our new house is officially ours but we still need to sell our old house. So just give me a little more time. After that, go ahead and crash the market if you guys must.

[sdbrison]

For clarity, that was half joke/half compliment.....

Any thoughts going into the weekend?

I will add that it was good on both points also.

[Charles Prestridge]

Can we avoid the great depression for a few more weeks please? Our new house is officially ours but we still need to sell our old house. So just give me a little more time. After that, go ahead and crash the market if you guys must.

Just as long as you tell us when we have hit bottom. Hard to tell if bottom was 1st week of April or if we still have another big drop (or two).

Good luck on the sale of your house.

Best Wishes on your relocation. May your winters only be 8 months long.

[TownesZ21]

I will add that it was good on both points also.

Thank you sir!

[Bassin08]

Can we avoid the great depression for a few more weeks please? Our new house is officially ours but we still need to sell our old house. So just give me a little more time. After that, go ahead and crash the market if you guys must.

Back in the seventies people were offering points to perspective buyers towards their financing. Maybe a one year warranty? You had to be creative.

Our first house in 1972 way 1100 square and no A/C. Our second house in 1975 was 1500 square feet without A/C. Both of them were brand new and bought from the builder. Our third house was in 1990, 1800 square feet with A/C and bought from the builder. Our next purchase was in 1997 from the builder and it was 1750 square feet and had A/C along with several upgrades, but best of all for cash and a surplus for us. Our current condo is 2800 square with a lot of upgrades. We bought it in 2009 during the market crash from the builder for 70K under asking price for cash. It has doubled in value since we bought it. My point is, you can make a lot of money in real estate by watching for deals without an agent. Just watch for a new house to start going up.

[boneil]

Just as long as you tell us when we have hit bottom. Hard to tell if bottom was 1st week of April or if we still have another big drop (or two).

Good luck on the sale of your house.

Best Wishes on your relocation. May your winters only be 8 months long.

only.......8 months.......


I'm 50/50 on April being the bottom but I certainly don't think we'll be making new highs anytime soon. I think at best we get several months of churn. From here on out I plan to start buying on red days. Buys will be small for now with size of buying picking up into summer. I have gone a little heavy on bitcoin, can't deny the recent strength. I think it certainly makes new highs and then some this year, probably best performing asset.

[boneil]

Back in the seventies people were offering points to perspective buyers towards their financing. Maybe a one year warranty? You had to be creative.

Our first house in 1972 way 1100 square and no A/C. Our second house in 1975 was 1500 square feet without A/C. Both of them were brand new and bought from the builder. Our third house was in 1990, 1800 square feet with A/C and bought from the builder. Our next purchase was in 1997 from the builder and it was 1750 square feet and had A/C along with several upgrades, but best of all for cash and a surplus for us. Our current condo is 2800 square with a lot of upgrades. We bought it in 2009 during the market crash from the builder for 70K under asking price for cash. It has doubled in value since we bought it. My point is, you can make a lot of money in real estate by watching for deals without an agent. Just watch for a new house to start going up.

With the wife's career path we don't have the ability to watch for deals. We just go when and where we need to. We already know that there's a chance we will have to move again in another year or two, but we believe she has a really good chance at moving up again while staying in Wisconsin. At which point we'll buy some acres and build a new home, unless the right one becomes available.

I know it's still early, but the wife really loves it there. She thinks she was born in the wrong state. The new house and neighborhood is huge upgrade to our standard of living.