"Until we get to April 2"

[digthemup]

What do you think of this:

In a social media post on Wednesday, W.H. described April 2 as "liberation day in America." But exactly what will happen remains an open question for markets.
"Until we get to April 2, we're kind of sitting and waiting for some direction and for some clarity," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance.

Is this an indication to sell and wait it out?

[davidsa]

What do you think of this:

In a social media post on Wednesday, W.H. described April 2 as "liberation day in America." But exactly what will happen remains an open question for markets.
"Until we get to April 2, we're kind of sitting and waiting for some direction and for some clarity," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance.

Is this an indication to sell and wait it out?

I think it depends on your strategy. Someone has been calling bear markets on CNBC for about the last 5 years but tariffs give us a possible trigger. I rebalanced my portfolio to a risk level appropriate for my age in January and I'm simply executing my strategy because I'm not good at predicting futures. Imagine a flash correction then markets go on a roll again. I find it easy to get out but much harder to know when to get in.

[rds_nc]

And why April 2nd? Is it going to be so absurd people think it's an April Fool's joke? What are we being liberated from?

Like David said, it would be hard to know when to jump back in so maybe we're better off never getting out? I've got a tiny cash position from my weekly contributions the last few weeks but I haven't been selling and waiting.

[boneil]

I'm certainly nervous about the markets. I'm not waiting for April 2nd though, I'm waiting to close on a house, sell a house, get a fence built, buy a lawn tractor, buy furniture........ In a couple of months I should be ready to get back in the markets. I just hope bitcoin doesn't leave me behind.

I think if two weeks ago when the markets were tanking, if you were having issues with the declines then I would sell this bounce and wait it out. Just know that you'll likely be chasing a running market if you try and get back in.

[digthemup]

The thing that I find unsettling is the unknown-unknown not the known-unknown, such as getting up in the middle the freaking night to post some BS triggering something totally out of the radar focus of anyone.
Trust me, in my life when it comes to gov intel, I did have had some serious crap dealt and made it through, but that is in the real world on in the altered minds of what is going on of current.
David brought out a good point about age related risks, which I should be playing it more than safe if going by that, but playing it safe is never been part of my tool kit, so why start now at my old age, so I guess I will need to adjust until there is a little sun through this triple canopy.

[digthemup]

Some potential good news for a change. WH said he might "give a lot of breaks" on April 2 following reports that the reciprocal tariffs would be narrower. Potential limits to tariffs on cars and chips sent those specific sectors soaring. Next round of April 2 tariffs will be narrower than many had feared, so by the grace of Christ, we can make some directional sense of things.

[Jeff La]

It's all bargaining. If you don't start high you have less to come down to. We need fair trade and we need certain production here for national security. That's the ultimate goal.

[davidsa]

maybe it is just bargaining. I just hope the leaders of other countries have been told what we are bargaining about. what is said daily does not suggest to me a well defined message track for markets, world leaders or even citizens

[tcesni]

It's all bargaining. If you don't start high you have less to come down to. We need fair trade and we need certain production here for national security. That's the ultimate goal.

It’s about headlining the news every day.

[Jeff La]

Well we can all sit back and let the debt rise until our money is useless and they start printing new currency. History says it can happen.

[boneil]

Welp, there went the car manufacturers. Gonna be interesting to see what GM and Ford does with the vehicles built outside the US.

[boneil]

If that doesn't describe Apple

[boneil]

SO about these tariffs. I'm guessing car prices across the board are going to go up including used car prices. Meaning inflation data gets hot again.

Anyone who thought April 2nd was just gonna be a threat or bargaining chip is probably rethinking that now.

[tcesni]

SO about these tariffs. I'm guessing car prices across the board are going to go up including used car prices. Meaning inflation data gets hot again.

Anyone who thought April 2nd was just gonna be a threat or bargaining chip is probably rethinking that now.

And that’s why seven weeks ago my wife said that it was time to stop talking about replacing our family car with 260,000 miles on it and to do it now! So we did. She’s a keeper.

[digthemup]

SO about these tariffs. I'm guessing car prices across the board are going to go up including used car prices. Meaning inflation data gets hot again.

Anyone who thought April 2nd was just gonna be a threat or bargaining chip is probably rethinking that now.

You are absolutely correct that the matter has now finally shown its true nasty purpose, which I strongly believe that is going to cost all of us multiple thousands of $ at great overall pain, since WH has stated that these are permanent. Hopefully, auto CEO's are smart enough to figure ways to circumvent the terms of these tariffs, just like getting around big HP with Yenko, Shelby, Roush, and Saleen, since these apply to complete cars coming in not gliders. Yes, it would be tedious, but it is been currently done with heavy semi, making final assembly in US.
BTW, that video smells alot like closing arguments of a defense attorney when their clients are deep in crap with high possibility of conviction.

[davidsa]

If that doesn't describe Apple

I've not worked anywhere near Apple during my years but have spent roughly 1 year on business trips into greater Asia/China. It seems like it describes many industries to most; especially those in the semiconductor and technology areas. I think what is said in the video is likely the truth, looking in the rearview mirror, about what has transpired and is transpiring. What our US strategy should be to recover is unknown to me but will take decades to implement and we won't have enough continuity in govt for long enough for that to happen.

Now the notion of taxing imported auto parts as the first big leg of the strategy is a head scratcher for me but maybe we need to see the entire package of tariffs to see. I did do a quick search on auto tariff impact and came across a list of most "american" made cars. I can't vouch for % or even the data but interesting that after Tesla, the remainder are the Japanese owned brands. Don't recall a single Detroit vehicle in the top 20 list.

[boneil]

I've not worked anywhere near Apple during my years but have spent roughly 1 year on business trips into greater Asia/China. It seems like it describes many industries to most; especially those in the semiconductor and technology areas. I think what is said in the video is likely the truth, looking in the rearview mirror, about what has transpired and is transpiring. What our US strategy should be to recover is unknown to me but will take decades to implement and we won't have enough continuity in govt for long enough for that to happen.

Now the notion of taxing imported auto parts as the first big leg of the strategy is a head scratcher for me but maybe we need to see the entire package of tariffs to see. I did do a quick search on auto tariff impact and came across a list of most "american" made cars. I can't vouch for % or even the data but interesting that after Tesla, the remainder are the Japanese owned brands. Don't recall a single Detroit vehicle in the top 20 list.

I've thought more about the video. America really did sell out our future to save a few bucks. If Apple started with making products in the US it would have kept millions of people working. And countless American children watching their parents work on Apple products which would have spurred innovation and a desire to work for Apple, design, test, come up with new ideas, the list goes on and on. Generation after generation is affected by where a single company decides to make their products. And it's the same for car manufacturers, furniture makers, pharma, anything really. Which is why I try to buy American.

That said. I think the new tariffs on cars and car parts is gonna be very disruptive. We bailed out the auto industry before, I don't think that happens again. I think theres a good chance we lose a car maker or two.

[Jeff La]

My question has always been How can foreign car manufacturers come to the US and be competitive, yet American companies can't make it here? I'm no expert but it has to be cheaper production overseas balances the books. With that said, I can see where tariffs will help balance that, yet I know short term suffering is inevitable.

I'm no fan of the daily song and dance along with the rhetoric from the left and the right. I just want a stable America where the future of your kids and grandkids are bright and not dependent upon the government, that is not a solution. If our government fails all wealth is over for the common man, only the super rich survive.

[davidsa]

I just want a stable America where the future of your kids and grandkids are bright and not dependent upon the government, that is not a solution. If our government fails all wealth is over for the common man, only the super rich survive.

well said Jeff

my only add would be that our kids and grandkids need to be working in areas where they build mastery, innovation and leadership skills. The "playing field" to do this in a country that outsources everything to lower cost centers is too small to build a strong middle-class or to have a country not dependent on others for very essential product. Though it was not a war, COVID supply chain / ships off the coast with no way to unload, etc should be a lesson we build on. How we do that without causing chaos is well above my pay grade and is not a simple or quick fix imo.

last thought- how this would change our investment values or strategies over the next 25 years would be interesting. In our financial world, we seek highest profit in our investments; not other causes.

[tcesni]

My question has always been How can foreign car manufacturers come to the US and be competitive, yet American companies can't make it here? I'm no expert but it has to be cheaper production overseas balances the books. With that said, I can see where tariffs will help balance that, yet I know short term suffering is inevitable.

I'm no fan of the daily song and dance along with the rhetoric from the left and the right. I just want a stable America where the future of your kids and grandkids are bright and not dependent upon the government, that is not a solution. If our government fails all wealth is over for the common man, only the super rich survive.

Some foreign car makers (Nissan) are also struggling to survive. Ford and GM are reasonably profitable as is Tesla although Tesla’s margins have been eroding fast. Everyone is under pressure outside the U.S. from Chinese companies. No doubt some more brands and companies are going to disappear or be acquired.