Did anyone listen to his interview today? He painted a pretty bleak outlook for 6-9 months out. His prediction is a recession in 2023. He said something like, gather your money. He also predicts another 20% down for the DOW.
Did anyone listen to his interview today? He painted a pretty bleak outlook for 6-9 months out. His prediction is a recession in 2023. He said something like, gather your money. He also predicts another 20% down for the DOW.
It's already a recession ... they're just not admitting to it.
There's a reason businesses are laying off workers, etc.
Credit is elastic, but only to an extent. It's climbing daily.
Originally Posted by TampaJim
Laying off workers???? I guess I see the data a little differently. 263K new jobs added last month and unemployment ticked down to 3.5%
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
Here it's been a shift from large corporations to small businesses and the service industry.
IMO, the corporate heads are much better at reading the tea leaves and making changes.
Unemployment is a worthless number without the participation rate. It's a big picture thing and all these silly data points are doing a disservice to people living the reality....
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I have always thought that a recession was a forgone conclusion. The only question to me is when does it start, how long does it last and how deep does it go. The Compound had a guest on that writes some macro analysis. He basically said that in order to get inflation under control you have to get wage growth to slow and the only way to do that is raise unemployment. He said there has historically been a 1 to 1 correlation between unemployment and wage growth. If unemployment goes up 1% then wage growth drops 1 percent. He said based on his date we need to see unemployment go over 5% to get wage growth down. The tough thing is employment and housing usually lag so it may take some time for these forces to take hold which means higher rates for longer and a danger to overshoot and have a hard landing. On the positive side, now is a good time to build the fixed income portion of your portfolio. You may make more in interest over the next 2 years than the market returns.
I am at the point of saying - no way to predict the next 1-2 years.
So many CEO’s and financial leaders are predicting a large recession.
I think they may be correct. However, I thought Covid in March of 2020 was going to create a large recession that would last for 1-2 years.
Global “stress” is everywhere.
A little more bad news may domino into deep recession.
A little more good news may domino into a soft landing.
I am at the point of just praying for those suffering the most from Russia’s invasion, natural disasters, and job losses.
I appreciate the information all of you provide as we make our financial decisions.
And you were correct ... until the markets were very flooded with newly printed currency, corporate bond purchases, etc.
Now we will have our 1-2 years PLUS the additional X years due to the actions taken. Wrong folks were bailed out.
All funding should have hit the lowest possible denominators, but it was applied mostly top down, the rest just smeared.
I don't see anything soft, period. Those fairing best will be anyone with income indexed for inflation and super savers.
IMO, it's one of the few times when zero debt, cash rich, fixed income folks will be the safest, for what that's worth now.
with the commentary from the Fed minutes saying they see a higher risk from not doing enough rather than doing too much, I would say there's a bit more of a chance that Jamie is right.
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
It already sounds like the Commercial Mortgage Backed security market is having issues. The Walker Dunlop CEO said that big money center banks are not lending on commercial transactions. Sounds like they definitely are worried about future issues in real estate.
Ran out of sellers. How big of a bounce can we get, days, weeks, months?
They're eating the Penguins, they're eating the seals...
1/4 day
The market is schizophrenic right now. These wild swings have to be the algorithmic computers.
It makes no sense but the actions on 10/13 was the wildest that I’ve ever personally experienced.
If I remember correctly, 2008/2009 had to be the wildest I’ve ever seen in my lifetime. I was retired for three years and watched $10K to $15K daily swings in my IRA. I was frozen and didn’t know what to do.
You have made a very good observation, so I would suggest to look into those past times at your actions and what would you correct, since you have lived through it and know how you were impacted by the adversities. it would be wonderful if you could share some of those corrections, since they may be some of us here that can use learning from them.
I was mostly invested in American funds, so you can move from fund to fund without a charge. I couldn’t move to the Bond Fund of America, because it was my largest holding and worst performing. I think my advisor moved me into a couple of their “safer “ funds. My wife retired that same year, so her 401K went into a 5% fixed annuity for 5 years. I know I made some mistakes but I protected most of our retirement savings. Right now I have been moving most of our money into CD’s and annuities. I guess how you handle it now depends on your age and financial situation. We have been debt free since 1997, so I haven’t been that anxious this time.You have made a very good observation, so I would suggest to look into those past times at your actions and what would you correct, since you have lived through it and know how you were impacted by the adversities. it would be wonderful if you could share some of those corrections, since they may be some of us here that can use learning from them.
The one thing that I can say is, if you have debt, do everything you can to get out of it.
I remember those swings also. Just when you thought you hit the bottom another wave of selling. If I remember correctly, the charts back then was a series of steps going down. I bought all the way down though but not all at once. When I came out the other side I was golden. Stocks back then that did well were Dollar General and Auto parts stores like Autozone and Advance. I don’t think this recession will be any where near as bad as 2008 though but this inflation is killer. The current market is different then 2008 I think. I’ve done more day and week trades with all the pops. I’m only holding long on really good dividend payers and will sell them too if they pop.
Don’t take what I am saying as the best way of managing investing during a recession. What I am doing today helps me sleep at night, but it’s not growing wealth for the future either. I’m 79 years old, so I’m happy to make 4% a year to supplement our SS and pensions. If you are a younger person this is a great time to invest to your comfort level, but it is a bad time to go into debt. Having a level of liquidity to get you through a long term of one to two years of turbulence in the market is the way a person should look at iit now. Invest, save, and avoid debt to me is the answer to me.
We haven't seen a good return this year, most polite way to put it.
Our "returns" have been in real estate holdings and conservation.
COVID cut our spending by default. And we just stayed the course.
Zero debt, but we still desire a return. At this point, we created it.
Hopefully, the markets will turn next year, but we think it's longer.
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