Anybody buying today? Or waiting longer?

There's plenty of reasons for the market to not have bottomed. But the market looks forward the next 6 to 12 months. This fiasco should be over in the next 1-3 months. Of course China could really stick it to us and put us into a recession. But for now it appears Bessent is the copilot and not Navarro.

Bessent speaks today at 10am. Nobody knows what it's about. He could spook the markets, or he might announce a "Not QE policy" but it's really just another form of QE. Who knows.

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Originally Posted by kmanbear

bottomed, seriously… we are barely 4 months in… it’s not like he’s hiring the “Whiz Kids”, it’s only the bottom of the barrel,that will unequivocally kowtow to him. Who will be the next Sec Defense? Bill O’ Reilly, or a 24 year old kid with a Tic Toc account? This nonsense, hasn’t even started! We are destroying our brand as the land of opportunity. The repercussions will be long lasting, and severe. I hope to hell I’m wrong, but you don’t pull the pin on a grenade, drop in down your pants, and pray God protects you… I’ve always believed, “don’t bet against the USA”, I still do, but it might take 15-20 years to come back from this nonsense… :confused2:

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Can't argue with any of that, and you are 100% right from a respect, relationships, trust and leadership perspective.

I hope that boniel is right from a markets perspective but have no idea. I do know that markets typically bottom 6 to 9 months before the economy does and that the only hope is that Navarro and his pipe dreams get kicked to the curb and Bessent actually takes the wheel. Does that happen and maybe more importantly how long does it last? The markets and the economy depend on those answers.

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Originally Posted by boneil

There's plenty of reasons for the market to not have bottomed. But the market looks forward the next 6 to 12 months. This fiasco should be over in the next 1-3 months. Of course China could really stick it to us and put us into a recession. But for now it appears Bessent is the copilot and not Navarro.

Bessent speaks today at 10am. Nobody knows what it's about. He could spook the markets, or he might announce a "Not QE policy" but it's really just another form of QE. Who knows.

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The problem China has is that f the US goes into a recession the consumers stop buying and that will not be good for China or any other country that exports to us. This could spark off a worldwide recession where nobody wins and everybody loses. Hopefully cooler heads prevail.

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Originally Posted by NitroZ7

The problem China has is that f the US goes into a recession the consumers stop buying and that will not be good for China or any other country that exports to us. This could spark off a worldwide recession where nobody wins and everybody loses. Hopefully cooler heads prevail.

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Well said, that's why this has to happen fairly quickly.

Trump said he has no intentions of firing Powell, so the market is flying. If he doen’t come back before the market closes we may hold these gains until tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by Bassin08

Trump said he has no intentions of firing Powell, so the market is flying. If he doen’t come back before the market closes we may hold these gains until tomorrow.

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the market “responding” to a simple comment like this is concerning. At least from a long-term holding perspective.

I think we just walked back the walk back......:mad:

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Originally Posted by NitroZ7

The problem China has is that f the US goes into a recession the consumers stop buying and that will not be good for China or any other country that exports to us. This could spark off a worldwide recession where nobody wins and everybody loses. Hopefully cooler heads prevail.

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I don't think China cares as much. China knows we work in 2 year increments and can wait us out. China also knows that if their economy gets really bad they can take Taiwan. War is usually a good distraction for the people.

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Originally Posted by goodman_fishing

the market “responding” to a simple comment like this is concerning. At least from a long-term holding perspective.

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I don't know what to think other than we likely have 3.9 years more of this to go

I had a doctors appointment, so the DOW gains got cut in half. What did he say now?

unclear,

will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow with several consumer companies reporting earnings today and tomorrow morning. Will earnings reports trump tweets? (pun intended)

I'm more confused now.

I did add to some SCHD today. The tax payments cleared so I added a little bit there and dumped the rest into a municipal money market mutual fund.

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Originally Posted by boneil

I'm more confused now.

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You're supposed to be the smart one!

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Originally Posted by TownesZ21

You're supposed to be the smart one!

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For clarity, that was half joke/half compliment.....

Any thoughts going into the weekend?

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Originally Posted by TownesZ21

For clarity, that was half joke/half compliment.....

Any thoughts going into the weekend?

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My thoughts. This makes no sense. But it rarely does. I remember when covid first hit, the markets sold off for a couple weeks, then went on to make new highs before the real sell off began. We were making new highs as I was reading reports of China welding doors shut on apartment buildings. A CDC person was talking about how disruptive the virus would be, but the markets didn't care for a few more weeks. I'm getting the same vibe. I feel like we're whistling past the grave yard.

I think the market believes the tariffs won't stick, or won't happen, or will be watered down and only be symbolic. Which is a real possibility.

I certainly don't hold any trades for long. But I am starting to nibble now for longer term holds, the wire transfers for the new house have been complete and closing is Monday, so I feel safe putting some money back into the market.

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Originally Posted by boneil

My thoughts. This makes no sense. But it rarely does. I remember when covid first hit, the markets sold off for a couple weeks, then went on to make new highs before the real sell off began. We were making new highs as I was reading reports of China welding doors shut on apartment buildings. A CDC person was talking about how disruptive the virus would be, but the markets didn't care for a few more weeks. I'm getting the same vibe. I feel like we're whistling past the grave yard.

I think the market believes the tariffs won't stick, or won't happen, or will be watered down and only be symbolic. Which is a real possibility.

I certainly don't hold any trades for long. But I am starting to nibble now for longer term holds, the wire transfers for the new house have been complete and closing is Monday, so I feel safe putting some money back into the market.

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We just listed our house last Saturday and have 5 offers. We just counter offered today so if that sticks it looks like we will be selling in the next 45 days. Will be nice to replenish the cash I had to use to build the new house. I can start selling some puts again.

Congrats Nitro! I though property in Florida was moving slow. That is an amazing result

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Originally Posted by davidsa

Congrats Nitro! I though property in Florida was moving slow. That is an amazing result

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We priced it reasonably and have impact glass throughout the house and updated everything. Things have slowed quite a bit on the west coast of Florida but not as much on the east coast.

Back from vacation...but, could not help myself, put a buy order in at $96 for NVDA and it got filled. Still holding at this point with a more liberal stop loss than I normally play with.

Congrats Nitro on the quick sell.:beers: