Market action certainly doesn't give me a warm fuzzy bullish feeling
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Market action certainly doesn't give me a warm fuzzy bullish feeling
Me either. I think the news announcement yesterday sparked short covering and now we are heading back down.Quote:
Originally Posted by boneil
Giving back everything it gained yesterday. Not encouraging.
Trader Heaven! If I could just trade on Truth Social posts within milliseconds I could become a Billionaire by year end.
Or get info ahead of time…billionaire by week’s endQuote:
Originally Posted by mossie3
So much this, the China tariffs are still on and that is the most important one in the world for us. Also, the one that has the power.Quote:
Originally Posted by boneil
I am eyeballing a few buys but haven't pulled the trigger yet. I would guess we have more red coming.
I did some tax loss harvesting and bought T with the proceeds.
Not just still on, but through the roof!Quote:
Originally Posted by Boondock
Keep your eye on truth social and bet the farm when he tells you to....... Or don't because he may be faking you out like Monday.....
This is so criminal it's not funny and they don't even try to hide it anymore.
What do you make of weekend announcements?Quote:
Originally Posted by boneil
It has to rip Monday..... Until something else comes out on T.S.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TownesZ21
When the announcements hit about the exemptions I thought, bottom is in. The bond market is in control, we'll get enough exemptions to make the tariffs nearly worthless. And, this turmoil is enough to cause weak economic data that will make the Fed cut rates. The market will look past the next quarter or two and start pricing in the economy 9 to 12 months from now, which will include lower rates, increased govt spending, and maybe some QE.
BUT then there was some new announcements.........."the exemptions are temporary".
How THE F can any business operate under this BS. Add in the fact that the exemptions mainly help companies like AAPL and NVDA. Well what about small business? what about the farmers? Is any small business gonna hire under this turmoil? The amount of small businesses that will get wiped out in the coming months if the tariffs and turmoil continue will be catastrophic.
SO my guess is that we gap up in the futures tonight but I could see us ending Monday red. The market can't price earnings in this environment. It's gonna move from one headline to another until we get stability. Stability might happen in a day or months from now.
The good news is, dollar cost averaging is gonna work really well during this time of uncertainty.
Quote:
Originally Posted by boneil
I'm thinking it at least 50% chance we are starting a multi-year bear market. I will be talking with my advisor in a few weeks about dollar cost averaging that would work in if that was the case.
Exemptions are now off?????? At this rate they're gonna crash the economy
BoneilQuote:
Originally Posted by boneil
WH is trying to intentionally cause a recession so they can make themselves look like they are doing a great job bringing things back within the next couple of yrs, so voters can be once again convinced of a great job the GOP is doing hoping to keep control camouflaging their failures.
Well, it sucks to be us getting caught in the middle of this power grab.:mad:
3-ish years to the next election is an eternity. Most people have short attention spans and will have forgotten about the angst this caused and the plan will work.Quote:
Originally Posted by digthemup
I don't think any administration would really want a recession but I do think they want the short and long term interest rates to go down because of the immense costs of financing our debt. Also Trump is a real estate guy and just about every real estate person I know is screaming about rates and how they are killing them. The crazy thing is this has had the opposite effect and longer term rates are rising because foreign capital is leaving the country. A spike in interest rates brought down Silicon Valley bank so it makes me wonder if they spike if we are going to start seeing concerns over bank failures.
@boneil...... Great overview, couldn't agree more.
I still held my nose and bought some Mega Cap today as I thinking it will be up a fair bit in a few years..... But it could easily go down more before it goes up.
To your point about how does this help small business or farmers..... I can't imagine many still believe that one. Where in his history has he ever cared about the little guy? Better deal for the country, well his version for sure but his version will be for the people that support him with major dollars. Everything is for sale, he proved that with his "Gold Card". This is a stock comment, I would lean toward the stock of those that have bought favors. Look to who contributed to the inauguration to get special carve outs in the tariffs (Apple just did) and unless they have a blow up look for Musk to get a huge hand out. He already got one huge government contract and an infomercial, they will try to give him more but I'm not sure it will offset how toxic he is with most of the world.
I agree they don't really want a recession and they do want to lower rates..... but they are screwing it up bigly.....Quote:
Originally Posted by NitroZ7
They are also trying to work "the art of the deal" on the world, but those are simply bully tactics and they only work if "you hold the cards". The problem now is their b.s. arguments don't hold up with people smarter than they are and they are getting their bluff called. There will be a few better deals cut, but it is very much to be seen if the net result will be positive..... and that is being polite.
Well I just received my quarterly statement from my advisor and my accounts are down less than 4% from January through March. I can live with that. I'm no fan of what's happening or how's it happening, at least some big changes are happening to try to turn the ship instead of going down the same destructive path.
Not debating all of it, but "Liberation Day" that was one of the worst in history for the markets was April 2nd..... so not reflected in your statements. There is time for things to recover before the next quarter so if that is your timeline to look you may be ok..... but the recovery we have seen so far was because of the walkbacks. If they keep walking back the tariffs before we hit a recession we might be ok, if not look out below.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff La
Quote:
Originally Posted by TownesZ21
The drops we just had percentage wise are not even in the top 20.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...strial_Average
MARKET EXTRA
U.S. stocks see biggest 2-day wipeout in history as market loses $11 trillion since Inauguration Day
Stocks erased a combined $6.6 trillion in value on Thursday and Friday
https://www.investopedia.com/timelin...rashes-5217820
But hopefully we are on the way back and focus on opportunity.
Last week was not fun for sure but it’s crazy to see people talking about the big hits dollar wise but not percentage wise. IMO percentage change is the most importantly number for sure. I have no doubt we will have some more volatility coming but those are great buying opportunities.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mahomee
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt D
You need new money to buy.
Bought today, watch out below.
I want to buy but the stocks I am looking at just seem to still be expensive.
I bought some AMD today.
If you don't mind me asking, what are you looking at?Quote:
Originally Posted by NitroZ7
I bought the Q's fully expecting that they will go down more but believing that there is much more upside than downside 1,3,5 years out and knowing I'm not smart enough to time the bottom.
Also bought BRK as a more stable play.
I looked at AMGN, EMR, META.Quote:
Originally Posted by TownesZ21
Powell is sounding pretty hawkish to me. They're gonna wait until the employment numbers show a problem because inflation is still too high and expected to go higher. He said they have to wait to see how the tariffs will affect employment......which will take time.
META looks juicy
I’m afraid to look at my XLK & XLY.
I looked OUCH!
I don't think they cut until we see some upward movement in the employment rate. Too many variables right now for a preemptive cut.Quote:
Originally Posted by boneil
I just sold a put on it at 400 expiring end of May. If I get it for that I will be happy.Quote:
Originally Posted by boneil
Quote:
Originally Posted by NitroZ7
Do you know if a cash secured put can be secured with money in a money market?
I don't have margin on my account so I have to actually keep the cash in the cash account. It may be different at someplace like Vanguard or Fidelity where the cash account is a money market rather than a money market mutual fund.Quote:
Originally Posted by boneil
Called it..... :eek::eek::eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by TownesZ21
The market agreed with youQuote:
Originally Posted by boneil
GLD looks like a good buy a while back - glad i took some risk there. Anyone know of a good precious metals or silver ETF they have researched?
Adding LULU to the list of my buys in the coming weeks. It's been on my ideas list since the beginning of the GLP1 drug craze. LULU will benefit greatly from GLP1s. Alot of people will suddenly be able to fit into Lulu clothing.
The wife moved to Wisconsin already and forgot to pack her leggings with her so she stopped into a lulu store. She's now a lulu fan. She had no idea how nice their clothing is.
I would give everything i own for a crystal ball.. I was pulling small amounts from fixed income but , I think there will be better entry points in the near futrure..but one tweet can change everything..lol