Looks like we may be headed for another correction if we don’t get some positive trade talk news by Friday. Got some low ball orders that may fill so I hope the President makes good use of his Twitter Account
Looks like we may be headed for another correction if we don’t get some positive trade talk news by Friday. Got some low ball orders that may fill so I hope the President makes good use of his Twitter Account
Tried to get in at the bottom today and missed it. Lets see where this goes...it was flying too high so I like this mini correction.
I'm not sure this thing gets worked out. We have the upper hand and China is stubborn and cares more about image at home. China doesn't want to look like it got bullied by us at home. But they can't win this fight, they need us more than we need them. The new tariffs have been put in place and start Friday, Potus ain't fooling around. I have seen more and more pundits on TV saying the deal will get done because it is good for both sides to get a deal done, but it is rare that the consensus view on TV is correct.
Thanos was the hero
if it doesnt get done...which I believe there is a decent chance it might not, it will be time to pick up some bargains.Originally Posted by boneil
I agree. I think if Friday comes and Tarriffs go in then we see something similar to what we saw back in December last year.
I don't know, the more I think about it and the more I read all the commentary, the more I'm wondering if this trade war is that negative on our economy and the global economy. How much do we actually buy from China? As prices rise on Chinese goods, that makes the same goods from other countries more attractive. It's not like China isn't the only place in the world with cheap labor or has some special natural resource that can only be found in China.
Could this possibly be bullish the IWM?
Thanos was the hero
So we stop buying ALL of our crap from China (easily 70% of the general retail market). It's a lot. We begin the time consuming shift to other countries in the region that can offer similar manufacturing and pricing.
China gets pissed and starts leveraging (or goes to war with) those countries (Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia). The President had better mind his Ps and Qs and listen to the smart people in the room.
I don't know what the "right" thing to do is, but I DO know it is more complex than "us and them".
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obviously not on a day to day basis, but could this be bullish for Mexico, India, Japan and other countries the longer a trade war lasts?
Thanos was the hero
Pretty good for a trade war. Can't wait to see how the media spins todays action.
Sunday night will be big, have to see what China does.
Thanos was the hero
I wonder if people bought for fear of positive news over the weekend. I bought a little Google and Amazon but nothing else filled.
CNBC was talking about companies have already been changing suppliers and manufacturers when the first round of tariffs started. I think more people are thinking this trade war is here to stay and it will devastate China. I bet we see new countries pick up the slack.
In fact, if China doesn't quickly give in to the demands, which are warranted, I bet this will really be good for Canada and Mexico. Which in turn will be good for us.
An interesting thread on what China does and why we need to stand our ground.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1126902416492855297.html
Here'e my opinion
This trade war escalates and drags out. The market falls some more and gives us buying opportunities over the next 6 months or so. It won't take long for other countries to start taking advantage of the situation. Businesses will also have to quickly adjust. I bet countries like Mexico or India show us just how quickly a manufacturing plant can be built. So as the TV pundits are all telling us that this trade war will lead to a recession, it will scare investors giving us better prices in our favorite companies to buy. In a year, or more likely a little more than a year, probably close to November, wink wink, the market and economy is roaring.
Thanos was the hero
Hoping for some carnage so I can start a position in Tencent and Baba. These may get knocked down but I am not sure they are going to be affected by tariffs anymore than Google or Amazon will.
Do you have a money tree in your yard ? Your constantly posting about buying on here nearly every day. Thats a lot of NEW money to the market if your actually constantly buying all this stuff.
It's not about having a ton of money sitting on the side, it's about always contributing. You get paid every week or two, so thats new money that we can put to work.
Personally I'm thinking about INTC and NVDA. I don't have an account full of cash to buy, I will simply adjust contributions to buy stocks that I think are cheap. Never selling, until the wife and I get closer to retirement.
Thanos was the hero
When my dad died last year he had a ton sitting in cash municipal bonds and treasuries that are maturing. I have been spending the last year starting positions and adding to them. I bought some TenCent, Amazon, Google today and some Intel last week. I have an order in for Ilumina at 302 that I’m hoping fills. I’m pretty much building a balanced fund from scratch and have about 50 percent that are still in bonds or cash. It will take probably another 2 years to fill it out. I have been starting 1/2 or 1/4 positions then buying as we get these downturns.
Ic was just curios.. I inherited some cash non invested money in 08 enough that I quit working then...Im 47 now.
I walked into 3 edward jones offices and interviewed them. I chose the one that didnt treat me like I had a measly 10k 401k etc. Despite me going there on purpose in dirty clothes after working on a car all day..
I wouldnt really want to be doing it myself and surely wouldnt want to be doing it at todays prices. Ive gotten a kick out of the posts on here for a while now, especially all the bit coin stuff.. Sorry about your dad, lost mine 25 years ago.
These daily swings remove 30-40k from my balance a day..
I am not really going it alone because I have another Trustee working with me and an investment advisor. We have about 5 different accounts in subtrusts that have different investment objectives based on the obligations set forth in the agreement. We work with a financial advisor at TD Ameritrade. I have some other accounts I have been managing on my own for my kids and 3 retirement accounts I do by myself so between all these accounts I end up doing a lot of investing. Most are long term but I try to keep cash and trim to raise cash for days like this. It is like having a second job.
Was the trade war priced in?
Thanos was the hero
I think people are still grappling with what it will mean economically. Also the fall in the 10 year bond probably helps move people back into equities. I still think we could see some more big drops depending on how this starts shaping up. Im not sure how long it will take for the full effects of the tariffs to hit. Maybe a month or two?
I had a few grand still sitting uninvested in my IRA. 2 weeks ago I decided I wasn't going to do anything special with it and rolled it all into a couple of mutual funds that had been performing well.
Wish I had waited a week.
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