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  1. #1
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    Investing Themes

    Started a small position in ROBO back in December based on the belief that automation going to continue to grow. I was looking at HACK but haven’t pulled the trigger on that yet because I’m thinking that maybe I just buy some of the individual network an computer security stocks. Anybody have any other themes they are looking at?

  2. Member
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    #2
    I bought ROBO back in Jan of 18. Then it tanked with everything else. Sold it at a loss to offset some other gains. I think it is a good long term EFT. I have decided to take my gambling money (small portion of total 401, EFT etc) and buy individual stocks and watch the two or three I own like a hawk. Bought and sold some 3M, Halburton etc.

  3. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #3
    Automation, AI and robots are clearly the future. However, I think there will be more losers than winners. The best software and hardware will be bought or developed by the big boys like AMZN, AAPL and GOOGL. They have the money to invest in it. And AMZN has always been investing into 10 -20 years into the future.

    Another theme I like is alternative energy. Solar, energy storage, fusion. Slowly but surely, coal plants will continue to close. I like Tesla and they are leading the way but can they survive the onslaught of every major car company entering the EV space this year and next? I think their stock is too dependent on car sales numbers. They need to make more headway with solar tiles, panels and batteries. And I'm sure that there will be a more friendly clean energy political environment in the near future.

    AMZN will either develop their own self driving software or use TSLA's. TSLA is millions if not billions of miles ahead of every other self driving software. So I think there could be a partnership, AMZN could buy TSLA electric big rigs.

    Going to need 5G towers and hardware for everything to work at its fullest potential. VZ?
    We are going to become a much more lazy society. Going to be alot of gym memberships. Peleton, PLNT
    Thanos was the hero

  4. Member
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    #4
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    Automation, AI and robots are clearly the future. However, I think there will be more losers than winners. The best software and hardware will be bought or developed by the big boys like AMZN, AAPL and GOOGL. They have the money to invest in it. And AMZN has always been investing into 10 -20 years into the future.

    Another theme I like is alternative energy. Solar, energy storage, fusion. Slowly but surely, coal plants will continue to close. I like Tesla and they are leading the way but can they survive the onslaught of every major car company entering the EV space this year and next? I think their stock is too dependent on car sales numbers. They need to make more headway with solar tiles, panels and batteries. And I'm sure that there will be a more friendly clean energy political environment in the near future.

    AMZN will either develop their own self driving software or use TSLA's. TSLA is millions if not billions of miles ahead of every other self driving software. So I think there could be a partnership, AMZN could buy TSLA electric big rigs.

    Going to need 5G towers and hardware for everything to work at its fullest potential. VZ?
    We are going to become a much more lazy society. Going to be alot of gym memberships. Peleton, PLNT
    You're right. I think about this every day lately - but my day job is cell site acquisition/development/leasing. I don't work directly for a carrier, my company is a Site acq specialist, and most carriers offload this type of work to companies like ours. But, 5G is going to require so much more density in coverage, it becomes less of a "tower" thing and more of a "gridded" approach to covering an area. More like building a big WiFi network to keep speeds up. Smaller nodes in more places, closer together or it's not going to work. Replacement streetlamps for ones that can handle the extra equipment load, or mounted on buildings - that sort of thing. The tower/mount companies are alot of time privately held, or a portfolio company of some capital group. It is also going to require huge investments in fiber to service all those nodes. 4G can get decent thruput using microwave backhaul. Who provides that fiber - Corning (GLW) in a lot of cases. Lots of antennas to be made - Amphenol (APH)? What Radio gear - Nokia (NOK), Ericcson (ERIC)? I wish I could see far enough into the future to know where the smart money is in this. All of these players are rebounding pretty well since big dips in 2016.

  5. Member
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    #5
    Quote Originally Posted by adrenalnjunky View Post
    You're right. I think about this every day lately - but my day job is cell site acquisition/development/leasing. I don't work directly for a carrier, my company is a Site acq specialist, and most carriers offload this type of work to companies like ours. But, 5G is going to require so much more density in coverage, it becomes less of a "tower" thing and more of a "gridded" approach to covering an area. More like building a big WiFi network to keep speeds up. Smaller nodes in more places, closer together or it's not going to work. Replacement streetlamps for ones that can handle the extra equipment load, or mounted on buildings - that sort of thing. The tower/mount companies are alot of time privately held, or a portfolio company of some capital group. It is also going to require huge investments in fiber to service all those nodes. 4G can get decent thruput using microwave backhaul. Who provides that fiber - Corning (GLW) in a lot of cases. Lots of antennas to be made - Amphenol (APH)? What Radio gear - Nokia (NOK), Ericcson (ERIC)? I wish I could see far enough into the future to know where the smart money is in this. All of these players are rebounding pretty well since big dips in 2016.
    If the 5g depends on smaller more concentrated nodes will that make towers obsolete.? I was wondering how this was going to affect companies like crown castle and American tower. I don’t know much about the mechanics of the infrastructure.

  6. Member
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    #6
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    If the 5g depends on smaller more concentrated nodes will that make towers obsolete.? I was wondering how this was going to affect companies like crown castle and American tower. I don’t know much about the mechanics of the infrastructure.
    No - not particularly obsolete - 4G LTE service will still need to be there for the more rural areas where there still needs to be coverage. Many carriers are opting right now to put their own steel in the air vs. co-locating on someone else's tower. Think about times where you currently are in areas where your 4G signal drops out, or calls always drop - those areas still need coverage from a 3G/4G standpoint - slapping 5G gear on the same towers isn't going to help anything.

    Current 5G technology runs at a higher frequency band - it can allow faster data speeds, but at shorter distances. 4G macro sites (standard towers) will still continue to be the backbone of coverage for the forseeable future.

    this article sums it up better than I can:
    https://thehill.com/policy/technolog...miss-out-on-5g

    Now what will start happening from a "marketing to users" standpoint - and I'm already seeing this from Verizon/AT&T - they will claim the "best 5g" network, or "first to 5G". This is all marketing drivel. There are so few working 5G test areas right now that it is pointless. Also there are basically no 5G phones out yet - none of our current phones will work on 5G - and apple is saying they're not planning on including 5g in their next gen phones. 5G will become more about data than voice - there are some 5G hotspots out there that would pick up the signal, and then become a WiFi hotspot for your home. But - then you are pulling from your data plan, but trying to stream netflix over it for your whole house.

    The next "revolution" you will see is the same stuff we saw when 4G came out - phones that magically said "4G" on the screen one day, but performance really didn't improve. That was the carriers tweaking their existing 3G sites to run faster, or simply say 4G to appease the masses with a placebo until they got their real networks updated. Carriers are already planning on taking their 4G LTE networks and really turning them up to 11 where they can - calling it a 5G "E" or 5G Lite. See here: https://www.howtogeek.com/399560/5g-...-need-to-know/


    Have I muddied the waters enough yet? lol.

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    #7
    Thanks that was a good explanation. I do remember the 4g rollout and never getting 4g for awhile.