Thread: TWTR

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  1. #1
    Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    TWTR

    Anybody else liking the blue bird??

    I'm an active twtr user and think it has value. I have no idea what the value should be. But it is the first place to hear about the news, and possibly the easiest place to spread ideas. Of course it has it's down falls. One being twtr trolls and the harassment that is spread on it. During the election season, I'm sure the active user numbers were through the roof, and I would think those numbers quickly went down after the election. For awhile I was thinking, that the end of the election season would also mark the beginning of a slow death for twtr. The only hope would be a buyout, as the rumors spread, other companies denied that they would be buying. And I fully expected to fall out of favor and drift to the single digits.

    But recently I had an idea. TWTR had a real impact on the election. An impact that can be bought. There are a few companies that, GOOGL and FB who have no problems with voicing their political opinions, and are known for tweaking trending topics on their platforms, could buy to simply to influence the next election. And even if they don't buy it, I would expect an activist, like Soros and I'm sure others to take up stakes to influence the spread of news.

    I'm thinking about building a position between now and every few percentage points lower. I think todays selling is the result of tax loss selling. I'm hoping it goes lower for add ons. But I think this may make for a good long term, 4 year hold.

    Thoughts???????
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    #2
    I love the service of Twitter, use it quite a bit. I just wonder how much advertising revenue that can get versus Facebook. According to Google Finance 52 week high is $25.25, so if you bought in at $17.92 then might have a chance to gain if it just hit its 52 week high again. Granted you know way more than me but just not sure of their financial position.

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    #3
    I had like minded thoughts but I see a downward trend happening with Twitter. They expected the NFL deal to bring life back into the company and it really didn't do much. I'm waiting for and expecting good things when snapchat goes public.

  5. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #4
    The CTO left the company, along with many others this year. With any hope, Dorsey is next. I hope there will be some downgrades in the coming days. Every decent move down I'm going to add a little
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    #5
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    The CTO left the company, along with many others this year. With any hope, Dorsey is next. I hope there will be some downgrades in the coming days. Every decent move down I'm going to add a little
    So you think long term it's worth holding on to?

  7. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #6
    Quote Originally Posted by derek81 View Post
    So you think long term it's worth holding on to?


    I plan on giving it 4 years, with the intention of buying more the lower it goes. So if it goes down to $10 per share tomorrow or in a year from now, I will add. I don't know what the worth is. I'm not sure how someone would measure it's value based on why I own it. Analyst like to use add revenue as a way of measuring value on a medium, but I think about how often I actually click on those adds and buy something, I think it's a BS metric.

    I have read that some analyst thinks its value is below $10 per share. What would get me to sell for a loss, is if the user base declines substantially. I'm okay with slowing user growth, to a point. I just need it to keep it's influential power. FB and TWTR is what decided this election. And with a 12 billion market cap, that just seams cheap to me for a company with global political influence.

    Don't buy it because I have it, it may become a penny stock overnight, or they may raise funds and dilute shares. You never know
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    #7
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    I plan on giving it 4 years, with the intention of buying more the lower it goes. So if it goes down to $10 per share tomorrow or in a year from now, I will add. I don't know what the worth is. I'm not sure how someone would measure it's value based on why I own it. Analyst like to use add revenue as a way of measuring value on a medium, but I think about how often I actually click on those adds and buy something, I think it's a BS metric.

    I have read that some analyst thinks its value is below $10 per share. What would get me to sell for a loss, is if the user base declines substantially. I'm okay with slowing user growth, to a point. I just need it to keep it's influential power. FB and TWTR is what decided this election. And with a 12 billion market cap, that just seams cheap to me for a company with global political influence.


    Don't buy it because I have it, it may become a penny stock overnight, or they may raise funds and dilute shares. You never know

    You said kind of what I was thinking, I was just curious as to what your thought was on the long term of the company.

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    #8
    I'd take Snapchat over Twitter. I'll never forget the first time I heard about Snapchat. I was sitting at a hibachi table and since it was just the two of us, they seated a family with us to fill up the table. Overhearing the conversation, their 12-13 year old was discussing and explaining to his parents what Snapchat was. At first I thought this was just a sly way for the girls to send their boyfriends dirty pictures. As time progressed I checked it out and saw some value in the platform.

    I think Twitter failed to monetize the platform early enough and missed the opportunity. I was originally a fan of Twitter for the IPO but never bought because it just didn't feel right. I just don't get Twitter.

    Snapchat on the other hand I believe has monetized their platform at the right time. While I don't use Snapchat, I get it and I get why people use it. The audience they cater to I think is more appealing to a different generation of people than Twitter, especially in the "selfie era." They have also made the paid advertising unobtrusive by using it as a filter as opposed to blatant advertising (X-Men branded filters). In the day of clickbait and "watch ad before you watch my video" can be irritating so this is a way for them to make money while not alienating their user base. I believe Snapchat has also managed to stay relevant.

  10. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #9
    I still don't understand Snapchat. How do they create value? I see that when they IPO they may be valued at 20 billion plus. 20 billion for what?
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    #10
    Until that idiot Dorsey is out of the picture they will never make any money.

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    #11
    Their (SC) growth is staggering, something like 50% in a year and it's expanding as other countries get on board with it. It's addictive. I tried to leverage it for my business and somehow a 10 or 11 year old boy followed me, and I followed him back. He was from Dubai with an evidently wealthy family, and constantly used the story feature and I caught myself following this kid's stories for no reason other than to see what he was showing. Throw an ad in here or there and it's golden for them.

    I don't use it any more because I couldn't leverage the technology right for my business, although I'll probably try again one day.

    Advertisers have the perfect demographic with SC and they can inject ads anywhere they want. Advertisers would pay big.

    Sorry to hijack the TWTR post.

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    #12
    Long Term I think Google or Amazon are the best choices right now, especially with the volatility we've seen the last couple weeks because of the election... Higher market cap, good P/E ratio, very diversified companies that will remain strong no matter what the rest of the market does. That said, if I were to buy Twitter, it seems like the price is right(or at least close to right). But again, I think the more conservative approach is Google or Amazon.

  14. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #13
    Doesn't get much worse than that earnings report. I don't think there was anything good about. revenues suck, and they cut future revenue guidance and user growth isn't there. No point in sticking around in this one for me.
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    #14
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    Doesn't get much worse than that earnings report. I don't think there was anything good about. revenues suck, and they cut future revenue guidance and user growth isn't there. No point in sticking around in this one for me.
    So you're out? What about the potential buyout?

  16. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #15
    I'm out for now. The revenue guidance cut was really bad. And they have a problem with the CEO, he needs to go. He turned down advertising revenue because of his personal political beliefs. I can't invest in a CEO that puts his personal political beliefs ahead of the company. When he goes, I'll get back in. It will remain on my watchlist, and I will buy again if I start to see clues of accumulation.
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    #16
    Is TWTR finally making a move?

  18. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #17
    with the move it has made over the last two months, it better have good earnings and a good forecast.
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