China

[NitroZ7]

I sometimes watch the news channels from other countries just to get a different view of world events. One of these is Sky out of Australia and their reaction to the drills going on around Taiwan and the recent visit of Pelosi is much more dramatic than what we have seen. It is not surprising because Australia is a commodity driven economy that relies heavily on China to purchase raw materials such as iron ore. I also have been monitoring the real estate issues in China, most notably the mortgage payment boycott and the inability of Chinese people to withdraw money from certain Chinese banks. It feels to me like China is backed into a corner. Their banking system and real estate may be on the verge of collapse, they are on the verge of civil unrest and using the 0 Covid policy to quell it, and they may be engaging in aggressive military posturing to divert attention away from their internal struggles. So the question is, how much exposure does our banking system have to Chinese debt, will the Chinese fire sale their foreign holdings of real estate, much like Japan did in the early 90's, and will commodity prices collapse along with supply chains? I have a bad feeling that 2023 may be shaping up to be a really bad year in both economic and geopolitical terms. We had supply chain issues during Covid but I have to wonder what the supply chains will look like if we have a blockade of Taiwan and the South China Sea and cold or hot war with China. My son's friend is in his 2nd year at the Naval Academy and he has told my son on several occasions that his instructors have all told them that the next conflict is going to be with China. Whether that is just talk to keep them focused or it is legitimate concern, I do not know, but the world may be heading to hell in a hand basket.

[TampaJim]

I do not know, but the world may be heading to hell in a hand basket.

Famine, drought, flood, disease, fire, war. Not much left to go wrong, we just haven't seen the effects play out.
I'm a LOT less worried about cash flow than food. One thing will rile folks up faster than anything else, hunger.

[bassnpro1]

One thing will rile folks up faster than anything else, hunger.

I would put water up there also. They kind of go hand in hand though.

[digthemup]

Famine, drought, flood, disease, fire, war. Not much left to go wrong, we just haven't seen the effects play out.
I'm a LOT less worried about cash flow than food. One thing will rile folks up faster than anything else, hunger.

Sad part to all of this is that the poor and downtrodden mostly in government controlled populations will be suffering the most. They are already discussing the famine mortality drastically going up in Southern Sahara countries. Think how the warlords controlled and starved the people of Somalia in the '80s, and in some areas even today, and in Ethiopia for many yrs though UN sent millions of tons grains.

6 And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.

Listen to the words long written down, when the man comes around.

[NitroZ7]

Broken link.