Originally Posted by KP1923
Now there's someone with an interesting past
Now there's someone with an interesting past
Thanos was the hero
It's slowing here. Won't go backwards, but definitely slowing.
Actually seeing listings not marked as pending, a big shocker.
Plus we see new construction dropping prices a tiny little bit.
Housing here had offer pending before they hit the publications. Now that has slowed and they are listed for longer periods of time. I would think the bidding wars are over too. I think with the crazy prices and now the interest rates at 5%, housing prices will start dropping. I’m glad we never have to move again, we have been in our condo since 2009. We took advantage of the housing devaluation of of that time period and bought just what we wanted.
Is a soft landing possible? What if QT doesn't have any real affect? What if CPI data is softer than expected? I see a scenario that the bottom is already in. In which case, I might cry.
Thanos was the hero
Anything is possible. If the war were over next week, I'd call it. Otherwise ...Is a soft landing possible? What if QT doesn't have any real affect? What if CPI data is softer than expected? I see a scenario that the bottom is already in. In which case, I might cry.
The "good news" is the straight fact the US is the best looking ugliest mutt.
We will be on top of the pile, even if it's at the bottom of a very deep well.
On the bright side I actually noticed the interest earned on my money market when it got paid last week. Looks like it is paying around 1.5% now.
Not so sure about that. China can probably hurt us pretty bad right now if they stop semiconductors from coming our way. We are way way too dependent on China and they don’t like us too much…
More damaging to them than us. China, unlike the US, is playing a very long game, they're highly patient.
They actually need us more than we need them. China builds consumer goods, we're a consumer economy.
Once they have a better grip on energy, food production, etc. it's always possible to see a shift in relations.
Currently, they're going crazy using funding, thru product buys, to fund world expansion, gaining ground.
We see it in Panama, and other CA/SA countries. They're loaning developing countries funds, tech & more.
A bunch of the newest infrastructure development at the Canal Zone is Chinese ... firms, equipment, etc.
+1 They control a huge amount of our medications, steel, food, you name it. During WWII the US was able to go into crisis mode building weapons and supplies. It would be pretty hard today to fight them and buy those things from them. This country needs to do a total about face and build here. If it cost us more, I’ll pay it. We have to stop making China stronger.
We will have to do much more than stopping buying from China. We have to become the world's leader in exports.
Which means fewer imports AND more exports, stronger bonds with allies to do exactly the same, build up economies.
China is absolutely enabling others to become more independent from the US and dependent upon them instead.
And there's where we have to concentrate as well. Flip the scenario entirely. Nationalism is a TERRIBLE plan, period.
I think we need to pick our trading partners more carefully. We should never have any trade partners that are communist. We need fair trade agreements with like minded countries. Never feed people who want to take over this country.
Our top partners are appropriate, Canada and Mexico. We do need to focus on CA/SA much more.
About 330M in the US, a saturated market. Versus about 800M in CA/SA, most are still developing.
We're very fortunate to big on a separate continent, bordered by large oceans & good neighbors.
Time to take advantage of it and build our partnerships for the next few decades, we'll need them.
When the lounge starts getting bullish its time to sell. When the stock and investment section gets very bearish its time to buy.
I'm enjoying it, but it doesn't make any sense to me.
Makes sense to me ... fund repositioning teasing "dumb money" to move the wrong direction.
Until other currencies recover more, we will continue to see a wiggle in the jiggle, then a flush.
Look no farther than Argentina, pegged at 69.5% Federal interest rate. Wow, just wow, oops.
The good news for us, might end up being an inexpensive spot to stay for a few years, enjoy it.
Overall, the scenario hasn't really changed. Recession trying to avoid a depression. Be prepared.
The market is getting a little too bullish on the recent inflation read and rates. The fed still needs to get inflation down by another 6% or so. That means it either needs to keep raising rates or the economy has to slow a large amount. I still don't see how either of these are good for stocks in the next year. The best case scenarios is inflation starts dropping alot more without the need for alot of rate hikes but I'm not sure I can put high odds on that unless we drop into a recession.
Yeah it can only pretend and go up on fluff for so long
I caught part of an interview this am on CNBC about QT. Leisman was on saying the reason why QT hasn't had much of an impact was because the treasury hasn't needed to issue as much debt as thought negating the QT. The treasury has been able to do this because the tax receipts have been higher due to inflation and the economy. QT will double next month though, so time will tell. But, it might be possible that QT won't have that big of an affect. I'm doubtful, but certainly open to the idea that QT won't be as bad as I thought.
Thanos was the hero
The demand for new issue treasuries is crazy. I bought one two weeks ago (it was like a 3 month maturity) and the minimum amount to buy it was $250,000.00. You used to be able to buy them at smaller amounts but my broker said there is a lot of competition to buy them now. Not sure if this minimum was just through that broker or not.
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