I remember the late 90s going to the recruiting station and seeing the army running overweight kids that couldnt get it due to weight. I also remember serving with people with felonies. The military has always been where there is a will their is a waiver.
I would think that the fact that we are having people turning 21 this year that were born after sept 11 and have known NOTHING but War might have quite a bit of bearing on why people don't want to join. Couple that with a good labor market (for how much longer?) and I would not want to be a recruiter.