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  1. Member
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    #21
    Cash, energy and a few defensive plays, like Dollar General, Costco, Phillip Morris International. This is going to get worse so cash is king along with energy right now. FANG, VLO and DVN are wort considering. This is not a season to try and make a lot of money. It’s time to keep from losing a lot. When there is blood running in the streets and gnashing of teeth, then you will have dry powder to burn getting back into the markets at great prices.

  2. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #22
    Today feels bottomy in the short term.
    Thanos was the hero

  3. Member
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    #23
    You should see the reddit threads. People are going into full blown panic mode. Capitulation may be just around the corner. The S&P is only down about 20% from the peak. This hasn't even gotten really ugly yet.

  4. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #24
    If we could get MSTR to get that margin call at bitcoin $21K that would be significant.
    Thanos was the hero

  5. Member
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    #25
    If you look at it in very simple terms, there is still quite some room to come down to pre-covid levels in the market. Can make a very strong argument that it should be much lower than pre-covid levels. Take out the artificial Covid run. This market is in much worse shape than pre-covid (Inflation, higher rates, FED has it hands tied - no magic bullet). I will start buying around the pre covid levels and I definitely think we are headed that way. Like Nitro said the S&P is only down 20%. Dow is down 16%. There is still a lot of downside in my opinion with very little upside in the short term. The only thing that is going to really be a catalyst in the short term is if the Ukraine war ends but even then how long does it take to reconcile accounts for that? All sanctions coming off immediately?

  6. Member
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    #26
    One more time ... keep the powder dry, it's not anywhere near over.
    Bitcoin is going to likely burn the markets, it's seriously on fire now.

  7. Member
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    #27
    Quote Originally Posted by TampaJim View Post
    One more time ... keep the powder dry, it's not anywhere near over.
    Bitcoin is going to likely burn the markets, it's seriously on fire now.
    That hedge against inflation argument sure didn't age well for Bitcoin

  8. Member
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    #28
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    That hedge against inflation argument sure didn't age well for Bitcoin
    We own zero. Our "savvy" is in saving, frugality, picking good advisors, etc.
    Once BRK stated it was all junk, we stayed far, far away. Not worth the risk.
    I'll allow we know a few who created intense wealth thru it. But others ...

  9. Member
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    #29
    Quote Originally Posted by TampaJim View Post
    We own zero. Our "savvy" is in saving, frugality, picking good advisors, etc.
    Once BRK stated it was all junk, we stayed far, far away. Not worth the risk.
    I'll allow we know a few who created intense wealth thru it. But others ...
    There was no value in it. We have condo buyers on new projects that planned to use it to purchase a new unit. We may start seeing some cancellations now. Absolutely crazy what people will put there money in and do it where they put more than they can lose.

  10. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #30
    When does TINA kick in? Or does bond yields go high enough to offset the price decline of a bond. Am I thinking about this right? As Fed starts and increases QT, bond prices drop and bond yields rise. Money has to go somewhere.
    Thanos was the hero

  11. Member
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    #31
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    When does TINA kick in? Or does bond yields go high enough to offset the price decline of a bond. Am I thinking about this right? As Fed starts and increases QT, bond prices drop and bond yields rise. Money has to go somewhere.
    Correct. Even when the money "disappears", it reappears.
    Stocks, bonds, etc. are all for a correction, currently occurring.
    However, the funds are still in circulation. Ownership change.

    We're sitting in the same spot, not moving, not worrying a bit.
    As usual, the 'trick' is patience & time. Allow things to adjust.
    It's like anything else, invest with a focus on fundamentals.

  12. Member
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    #32
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    When does TINA kick in? Or does bond yields go high enough to offset the price decline of a bond. Am I thinking about this right? As Fed starts and increases QT, bond prices drop and bond yields rise. Money has to go somewhere.
    The losses in the bond market are really those holding bonds in mutual funds. People see their safe fund dropping, they redeem, the fund sells the bonds for a loss. If people are buying individual treasuries or bonds and hold them to maturity they get paid back at par, assuming no default, and don’t actually experience a loss. If rates are higher then you re invest into a higher yielding bond. If yield get near the 4% level then I think they do start competing with stocks as an alternative.

  13. Member
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    #33
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    The losses in the bond market are really those holding bonds in mutual funds. People see their safe fund dropping, they redeem, the fund sells the bonds for a loss. If people are buying individual treasuries or bonds and hold them to maturity they get paid back at par, assuming no default, and don’t actually experience a loss. If rates are higher then you re invest into a higher yielding bond. If yield get near the 4% level then I think they do start competing with stocks as an alternative.
    Would this be the same for preferred’s? We are in the process of changing investment companies, but we haven’t signed any papers yet. I’m starting to get cold feet due to this volatility. I’m thinking it is a bad time to change allocations?

  14. Member
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    #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Bassin08 View Post
    Would this be the same for preferred’s? We are in the process of changing investment companies, but we haven’t signed any papers yet. I’m starting to get cold feet due to this volatility. I’m thinking it is a bad time to change allocations?
    The issue with preferreds is they are often times perpetual so there may not be a set maturity date. The should pay out at par but they are not risk less like a treasury. You really have to evaluate each preferred on its own terms as to any call dates or maturity date if it has one.

  15. Member
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    #35
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    The issue with preferreds is they are often times perpetual so there may not be a set maturity date. The should pay out at par but they are not risk less like a treasury. You really have to evaluate each preferred on its own terms as to any call dates or maturity date if it has one.
    The ones we had with call dates were called, the rest are perpetual. The problem is, some are noncumulative.

  16. Member
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    #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Bassin08 View Post
    I’m going in for a meeting with Schwab tomorrow. My plan is to move our investments from Stifel to them. My plan is to move just about everything into CD’s and fixed income of some sort. I am a saver, investor, but not a trader. Right now I’m holding XLK, XLY, PFE, XOM,KO, MO, T, SO, and cash. I do have some preferred’s too. What do you think?
    Just be aware that the business model for discount brokers, including Schwab, has been to use low commission stock trades to draw investors in to their more profitable fixed income desks.
    2006 Triton TR196 w/ 200 Optimax \ 2021 AlumaRyder 1860 w/ 200 Rotax

  17. Member
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    #37
    I am 78 years old, so right now I would be happy being in 3% fixed income and I wouldn’t care how much they made. If CD’s or treasury bonds go up that would be great!

  18. Member
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    #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Bassin08 View Post
    I am 78 years old, so right now I would be happy being in 3% fixed income and I wouldn’t care how much they made. If CD’s or treasury bonds go up that would be great!
    Yields are jumping again today. I have been buying some CDs at three and hoping we see 4 soon.

  19. Member
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    #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Bassin08 View Post
    I am 78 years old, so right now I would be happy being in 3% fixed income and I wouldn’t care how much they made. If CD’s or treasury bonds go up that would be great!
    Our target has been "Inflation + 2%" for years. We're both retired, no desire to head back to work.
    We had been doing fine, even through last year. 2022 isn't so kind, but still 1/2 the markets losses.
    The good news, our RE portfolio has been offsetting and adding, at least currently. Next stop??

  20. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #40
    you know it's bad when I have to adjust my charts from 1year/daily to 3year/weekly. Might have to zoom out farther in the fall when we start pricing in a food crisis.
    Thanos was the hero

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