Thread: Ford (F)

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  1. #1
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    Ford (F)

    I see that there is a few buy ratings out there, and a lot of positive news forward looking, especially with them having to temporarily stop the pre order reservation on a few of their EV vehicles due to high demand. I have accumulated a small position of 2K shares, and I am wondering what is the thought of other investors on here.

    Thank you in advance to everyone.

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    #2
    I’ve been looking at it also but I’m worried about the issues with chip shortages, parts supplies, high inflation and gas prices that can hurt sales. I like the dividend while waiting though.

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    #3
    I just don't know how they make money in the near term if they don't have product to sell. I also don't know how they are going to get the materials for EV's given the Russian Ukraine situation. I'm not sure they have a head start on securing these materials like TSLA or Apple.

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    #4
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    I just don't know how they make money in the near term if they don't have product to sell. I also don't know how they are going to get the materials for EV's given the Russian Ukraine situation. I'm not sure they have a head start on securing these materials like TSLA or Apple.
    They must have secured enough materials since they are delivering F150, Mach E, and Maverick hybrid, and they have maintained full yr guidance. Didn't know that Apple has even made a prototype.

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    #5
    Quote Originally Posted by digthemup View Post
    They must have secured enough materials since they are delivering F150, Mach E, and Maverick hybrid, and they have maintained full yr guidance. Didn't know that Apple has even made a prototype.
    It is the lithium, cadmium and nickel. The same thing that goes into cell phone batteries. If you watch CNBC they have an auto analyst that follows this stuff. He said GM and Fords projections and deliveries are impossible given the shortages in these materials. I was at a Ford dealership a year ago when I traded in my car and they had almost no new cars to sell. I'm not sure how they make money being a used car lot. There is demand but they are not going to be able to produce the vehicles to meet it.

  6. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #6
    I like F, I think F is the most likely of the OEMs to survive the transition to EV. I love that they have an agreement with Redwood Materials for battery supply. I love the new plant they are building in Kentucky with SK innovations. Farley is a good CEO and is doing the right things.

    Ford EV is worth more than Ford legacy. Even though Ford isn't profitable yet on the ev side. Ford is profitable on legacy trucks. But that side of the business is dying, and is burdened by debt.

    The question I have is will Ford's new plants follow Tesla's lead with manufacturing? Farley is probably gonna try, but can he loose the dead weight of legacy thinking? Legacy manufacturing involves alot of people on the line, and many many suppliers from all over the world. Tesla involves mostly robots and in house manufacturing of parts, and always innovating. Legacy manufacturing is not going to make 30%+ margins.

    I think the stock will be much higher in a few years. I'm hoping Ford IPOs the EV business. I'm waiting to see how the real world treats the new lightnings that are rolling off the line. GMs evs had a fire problem, and the mach E has/had software issues. Will the Lightning have any major issues? If they do, it could be a real set back for the stock.
    Thanos was the hero

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    #7
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    It is the lithium, cadmium and nickel. The same thing that goes into cell phone batteries. If you watch CNBC they have an auto analyst that follows this stuff. He said GM and Fords projections and deliveries are impossible given the shortages in these materials. I was at a Ford dealership a year ago when I traded in my car and they had almost no new cars to sell. I'm not sure how they make money being a used car lot. There is demand but they are not going to be able to produce the vehicles to meet it.
    I believe that you would agree that 1 yr has made a huge difference in any business. Redwood Materials. MP Materials Corp are providing what they need and their association with SK Innovations is going to help expedite battery production. Ford is doing a lot of changes to their legacy sector in transitioning those models into hybrids, which in my limited opinion is the best way to green power.

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    #8
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    I like F, I think F is the most likely of the OEMs to survive the transition to EV. I love that they have an agreement with Redwood Materials for battery supply. I love the new plant they are building in Kentucky with SK innovations. Farley is a good CEO and is doing the right things.

    Ford EV is worth more than Ford legacy. Even though Ford isn't profitable yet on the ev side. Ford is profitable on legacy trucks. But that side of the business is dying, and is burdened by debt.

    The question I have is will Ford's new plants follow Tesla's lead with manufacturing? Farley is probably gonna try, but can he loose the dead weight of legacy thinking? Legacy manufacturing involves alot of people on the line, and many many suppliers from all over the world. Tesla involves mostly robots and in house manufacturing of parts, and always innovating. Legacy manufacturing is not going to make 30%+ margins.

    I think the stock will be much higher in a few years. I'm hoping Ford IPOs the EV business. I'm waiting to see how the real world treats the new lightnings that are rolling off the line. GMs evs had a fire problem, and the mach E has/had software issues. Will the Lightning have any major issues? If they do, it could be a real set back for the stock.
    They are running the company in tandem with each sector operating autonomous, according to Farley. In house manufacturing is what all the automotive world moved away from yrs ago, and I used to be a manager for a GM subsidiary, Delco Products in Rochester, NY, which later was sold to Valeo SE who destroyed the business moving what was left wiper business to Mexico.
    It's great that Tesla uses mostly robots for their production and no affiliated dealerships, but remember that those things don't buy or use anything, which though they are creating wealth for Tesla, it's not contributing much for our economy as a whole. People use and buy things creating benefits for society at large.
    GM fire problems were created by the battery supplier, which according to GM have been addressed most likely by replacing them or making them replace every battery at no charge to the customer with additional compensation to the customer for the inconvenience, and I have been on that side of the issue with some of our actuator motors we used to provide even as a subsidiary.

  9. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #9
    I'm either gonna start buying some shares or some January 24 call leaps
    Thanos was the hero

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    #10
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    I'm either gonna start buying some shares or some January 24 call leaps
    I want to get back up to 10K share like I had last yr, but I sold prior to heading down. Made very good money, and took that to invest some back and some into GM and Fisker (FSR), but the market has been in turmoil, so I am down on all 3, which is allowing me to add to my positions. I strongly believe that these companies will be going up in the near future, based on their forward projection and vehicle platforms.
    A friend of my had a 2012 Fisker Karma that was a bad ass car with great handling, so I am hoping their Ocean is as good looking with similar performance.

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    #11
    Added another 500 shares today at a price thought would not see again, but here we go.

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    #12
    Quote Originally Posted by digthemup View Post
    Added another 500 shares today at a price thought would not see again, but here we go.
    Good luck! Hope it does well for you.

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    #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Tfall View Post
    Good luck! Hope it does well for you.
    Tfall
    I am playing with house money since I cashed out Ford last yr before the pull back making out quite well, apart from my tax bill.

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    #14
    Quote Originally Posted by digthemup View Post
    Tfall
    I am playing with house money since I cashed out Ford last yr before the pull back making out quite well, apart from my tax bill.
    It had a nice pop on Friday and I was thinking that if I had bought 1000 shares myself on Thursday I could have sold it Friday for the nice bump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tfall View Post
    It had a nice pop on Friday and I was thinking that if I had bought 1000 shares myself on Thursday I could have sold it Friday for the nice bump.
    Actually I added to the position, since I feel that this train is going to be leaving the station very soon, and when it stops it will be well over the $ it just went up.
    BTW, I was very well surprised by that nice jump by GM, and I can't wait for the Caddy Lyriq, Chevy Silverado EV, and Hummer to hit the tarmac like the Ford EV already on the road proving themselves worthy.

  16. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #16
    I saw where Ford is going direct to consumer sales for EVs. Thats really good IMO for the thesis that they spin out the EV business at some point. Ford EV is worth so much more without legacy Ford.
    Thanos was the hero

  17. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #17
    I started a position at $13.25. will add at lower prices. I was going to go with calls, but timing is too much of a gamble. I'm hoping F spins off the EV business and there is some conversation in shares. Gonna keep an eye out for info about the progress of their new plants. If anyone lives near one of these new plants, any info would be appreciated.

    With the batteries in these trucks there's a chance at some grid balancing types of revenue. Something to keep an eye out for in the future.

    As these new trucks start reaching customers, we might start seeing issues. Batteries and software is a risk. If I see a Ford lightning on fire, I'll probably sell.
    Thanos was the hero

  18. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #18
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/ford...ng-demand.html

    Not good. the Mach E costs rose $25K, and they're built in Mexico. OUCH How much did the Lightning costs rise. Add to the news about halting Mach E deliveries. Gonna take the L on this one and revisit latter on.
    Thanos was the hero