Read a good article on the history of Fed rate increases and how many times in can cause a recession in 1 to 3 years after the first increase.
https://fortune.com/2022/03/16/what-...ession-stocks/
Read a good article on the history of Fed rate increases and how many times in can cause a recession in 1 to 3 years after the first increase.
https://fortune.com/2022/03/16/what-...ession-stocks/
I was thinking we would get a soft landing but then the war started. The ramifications of the war, and sanctions won't be fully appreciated for months to come.
Thanos was the hero
I think this war and sanction took transitory off the table. They are going to have to hike aggressively to try and maintain price stability. The good news is they can kill some jobs and it won’t matter because there are so many unfilled positions. But I think at some point we will enter a recession if nothing changes. Honestly I like the scenario where we have somewhat higher rates since I’m tired of TINA.
Who’s TINA?Originally Posted by NitroZ7
There Is No Alternative.
I’ve been renewing CD’s for 3 months rather than 13. I’m waiting for the yields to go up.
I don't think there is any way thee isn't a recession. In the past the way inflation was tamed was to aggressively raise rates. Since we are over 30 trillion in debt the increase the interest on the debt would cost is going to be a problem. I don't think the fed will raise rates nearly enough to curb inflation and we saw this with a .25 rate increase recently. .25 will do nothing to help with inflation.
They have said they will probably raise rates six or seven times. If they hold true with .25 raises we are talking about less that two percent in raises. That also will do nothing. I have a CD coming due later this month. Already told my banker that I'd take it in cash before taking .70 or whatever it is now. It is 3 percent now. I guess we'll see what they offer but I'm not expecting much.
Right now the two year Treasury is about 2.5% so you may be able to replace it after May for close to that.
Remember, you can purchase $10,000/person/calendar year in Series I Savings Bonds.
They're currently paying +7% and the rate will increase with inflation. Ain't a bad spot.
Everything is electronic thru Treasury Direct. No cash out for one year, simple otherwise.
FWIW, household supplies/food isn't a terrible concept either. It's not getting cheaper.
Any "Do It Yourself" upgrades, or maintenance, on your home, auto, etc. is a good bet.
In inflationary times, always spend $ in advance. Not toys & silliness, but life itself.
I don't see supply chain issues being "fixed" per se ... because they are "fixed" already.
Look no further than the profits of major corporations currently. Ain't broke for sure.
Toss in COVID spikes/variants worldwide & war in Eastern Europe ... go long for sure.
What do you mean at the end where you say go long for sure?
Invest in long term prospects. Blue Chip stocks, stable dividend stocks, real estate, etc.
I'd not look at ANYTHING in the short term, except your food. It's not gonna be pretty.
OK. Sounds like we are on the same page..
Anyone know why they limit Series I Bonds at 10K per calendar yr?
I think it is a product that they want to target for individual savers and not make them available to large institutions, brokers etc. I know I would have bought more if the limit was raised but if you are married you can buy them for you and have your spouse buy some up to the limit as well and then do it again in January of the following year.
It would have been nice if they would have capped it at 50K or at least 25K, but I like your idea of buy them in the Dec-Jan window, which would allow for 40K investment.
Thank you for a great idea again Nitro.
Because they don't want to be flooded during the market dips ... at least that's my guess based on options.
The limit is $10k/person/year. Plus you can do up to another $5k/year with your tax refund, if applicable.
Outside of this option, you can always do TIPS. IMO, overall diversity is key to long term success investing.
Stocks - domestic & international, large & small cap, bonds, real estate, commodities and possibly others.
We are conservatives, believing in zero debt, paired with minimal risk. Gambling is for the Las Vegas types.
T J
What's a tax refund? I haven't seen one of those in forever.
I never give the govs a penny more than I ever owe, so I make sure that i get that check to them on time.
I do have real estate investments, and I have the last section of my approved 45 lots subdivision currently up for sale for 499K
BTW, Still think that 10K is a bit on the low side.
I'm actually getting refunds now. It took retirement, and 20% mandatory, to get there.T J
What's a tax refund? I haven't seen one of those in forever.
I never give the govs a penny more than I ever owe, so I make sure that i get that check to them on time.
I do have real estate investments, and I have the last section of my approved 45 lots subdivision currently up for sale for 499K
BTW, Still think that 10K is a bit on the low side.
Our RE portfolio, except our homestead, is up for sale as well. Good time to pull the trigger.
We've seen too much escalation in taxes, insurance, upkeep plus the rent moratorium.
If you'd had been placing $10k/year into Series I for 20 years, where'd you be today?
And that's why the government limits them. They're a short term, limited option for you.
Personally, I'd like to see some semblance of return on basic savings again, seems fair.
However, as with most things economic, the elderly and poor are usually beaten instead.
I agree with you on the moratorium crap deal, which is the reason why we are where we are today when you put too much money in people's pockets, yet, they tell you that you can't evict for failure of payment. I know some friend who have foreclosures cause of it.I'm actually getting refunds now. It took retirement, and 20% mandatory, to get there.
Our RE portfolio, except our homestead, is up for sale as well. Good time to pull the trigger.
We've seen too much escalation in taxes, insurance, upkeep plus the rent moratorium.
If you'd had been placing $10k/year into Series I for 20 years, where'd you be today?
And that's why the government limits them. They're a short term, limited option for you.
Personally, I'd like to see some semblance of return on basic savings again, seems fair.
However, as with most things economic, the elderly and poor are usually beaten instead.
I don't hold bonds for too long, about 15 mos. and cash them in, unless things are unstable.
Definitely a good time to sell any income producing real estate, especially in Tampa. With rates going up along with inflation, I think we will see real estate staying flat for awhile and who needs the headaches of dealing with tenants and maintenance. That is why I usually just buy apartment REITS. Not as much appreciation but I can click a button and sell if I want out.I'm actually getting refunds now. It took retirement, and 20% mandatory, to get there.
Our RE portfolio, except our homestead, is up for sale as well. Good time to pull the trigger.
We've seen too much escalation in taxes, insurance, upkeep plus the rent moratorium.
If you'd had been placing $10k/year into Series I for 20 years, where'd you be today?
And that's why the government limits them. They're a short term, limited option for you.
Personally, I'd like to see some semblance of return on basic savings again, seems fair.
However, as with most things economic, the elderly and poor are usually beaten instead.
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