If it drops down to that 200 level it is going to be even juicier. I love buying these kind of stocks when their yields are over 3%.Originally Posted by Tfall
HD has a juicy dividend.
If it drops down to that 200 level it is going to be even juicier. I love buying these kind of stocks when their yields are over 3%.HD has a juicy dividend.
I don’t think HD will drop that far unless market really tanked. When market turns, HD runs hard. Got my alert set at 280 if it gets there.
It might get there. Tomorrow is the inflation numbers.
You know it's a bear market when the CNBC special and the BBC lounge market posts don't signify a market bottom. The next sign to watch for are posts about people selling out their 401Ks.
Thanos was the hero
If you put a 15 multiple on the S&P based on last years earnings it gets it in around the 2900 range assuming earnings are flat. That would be another 25% drop from here. If that happens the buying opportunities will be incredible.
Please no, not 2900. Would have to keep buying puts to make up for the decline in my 401K
That is based on last years earnings so it is probably too low. I could see something more like 3500 as more realistic but who knows.
Please no, not 2900. Would have to keep buying puts to make up for the decline in my 401K
The Fed hasn't even started QT. Balance sheet reduction starts June 1st, and then ramps for six months. We haven't even started the real pain.
Thanos was the hero
I think the mortgage backed security part of that is what is really going to hit the mortgage market. Why they were buying those when home prices were skyrocketing is an absolute mystery.
It's only a mystery if we ignore the fact that those bastards at the Fed were trading the markets. You couldn't stop the buying of mortgage backed securities days after the board members got caught, you had to give it time to make it look less suspicious. But more likely, had to give time for friends and family members to exit their positions.
Thanos was the hero
Consumer credit is the "stimulus" behind current spending AND spending is trending down.
It's all going to wind up and smack dirt, we will get thru summer ... but that's probably it.
As their savings decline, they spend on the credit card and when the credit card is maxed they refinance and then they are tapped out. It is crazy how these cycles seem to go. I watched very interesting video Ray Dalio did and he essentially said the whole economic cycle is really just a credit cycle. I had never really looked at it that way but it seems to be very true. Money will get made in the market as soon as there is real blood in the street. Then all the leverage will be gone and stocks will start trading on fundamentals again.
Looks like Disney may get back to its pandemic low.
Uh oh. Powell just said a soft landing may be out of reach and getting inflation under control will involve pain. 75 or more is now on the table or maybe an inter meeting move.
is the market up or down tomorrow on these comments............I'm really not sure
Thanos was the hero
If they don't smother the flames soon, they're gonna be sorry ... of course, they're already 90% sorry and sweating.
Extremely low unemployment is a poor environment to control inflation. Paired with endless credit, a dumpster fire.
The good news is that layoffs and hiring freezes are starting to show up. If these start increasing then it should slow the wage gains in the labor market. The Fed just needs to move faster.
Yep ... smack 'em with a full point and stop any, and all, forms of bond purchases, etc.
At this point, inflation is a much higher concern than the interest rate or employment.
By slowing things, they'll encourage the supply chain issues to unkink themselves too.
Never, ever, ever should have gifted all the tax breaks & dropped rates a few years ago.
Disagree. They should just cut spending an appropriate amount to get by with the lowered tax rates. They should not have paid people more to sit at home during Covid than they could make working.
Do realize our economy was chugging along just fine, before the tax cuts and rate reductions.
By lowering taxes, we lost an opportunity to reduce, and eventually eliminate, the US debt.
End result, we ALL would have seen a permanent tax cut ... since we'd no longer pay interest.
And reducing the rates to near zero, in a strong economy, left us without tools, if needed later.
As luck would have it, we did need them later, or actually sooner, to cool our current situation.
As for people sitting at home and making more ... it's not the case now, and it's still FUBAR.
Which makes it a bit moot. Plus much more was wasted thru PPP and other insanity of the day.
I do greatly agree, we can't spend our way out of debt. Cutting costs is key, but it's not alone.
Unfortunately, our accumulated debt requires taxation at rates higher than otherwise necessary.
Last edited by TampaJim; 05-13-2022 at 05:13 PM. Reason: Edited for spelling, grammar and clarity.
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