Will Rivian get crushed?

[champ223]

Will Ford,GM and Ram stomp out rivian? These companies certainly have the facilities and manpower. Rivian as of October had put only 42 vehicles out to the public. Amazon had said they’d buy 100,000 vans from them. Now Amazon says they will be Ram’s first customer for EV vans and that they are not committed to purchasing from Rivian. Amazon is a major shareholder in Rivian. Do they they think Rivian can’t get it done? Rivian was the largest IPO in history. I was skeptical from the start how a company that has a great concept but basically zero product could be worth so much.

[boneil]

I think they will. I think Ford dumps their holdings when the lock up expires. I think that if Ford was interested in continuing their partnership there would be something about Rivian in Ford's new EVs. But there's no mention. Nothing about battery tech, software or anything. There's a price that it's a buy, but for me thats much much lower.

[idbefishing]

Especially when interest rates go up, these kind of businesses will go in the shitter. WKHS, NKLA, LCID are in the same boat

[TampaJim]

Big Three won't be displaced easily. They learned from Tesla's emergence.
Notice they not only didn't hesitate, they're now ahead and moving faster.

[boneil]

Big Three won't be displaced easily. They learned from Tesla's emergence.
Notice they not only didn't hesitate, they're now ahead and moving faster.

Who is ahead and who is moving faster? How and what are you measuring to come to that conclusion? If you think any of the big 3 or others are ahead of Tesla, would love to discuss.

[TampaJim]

Who is ahead and who is moving faster? How and what are you measuring to come to that conclusion? If you think any of the big 3 or others are ahead of Tesla, would love to discuss.

Didn't say they're ahead of Tesla ... they learned from Tesla's emergence.
Don't expect them to even allow Rivian much of a peep. Might be wrong.

[Charles Prestridge]

I hope they do not get crushed. I see a couple of my 401K funds have about 3% in Rivian.

If Rivian crashes, it will not kill the funds, but will be enough to lower return by several percent for a few years.

[IMhooked]

The crystal ball is cloudy...if it wasn't we'd all be much wealthier if we could predict the future of an individual company or stock. No one knows anything for certain.

[Triton420]

Rivian will get crushed. Lucid has a better chance.

[Tfall]

Rivian will get crushed. Lucid has a better chance.

Does Lucid have a Truck?

[TampaJim]

Does Lucid have a Truck?

Nope ... but we do have Ford, GM and Toyota who will produce them AND kick the crap out of Rivian.
I'd put the $ on GM, especially since they have a very strong offering with Ultima and signed Honda.
Ford and GM have a very strong dealership network, # legacy customers, strong fleet sales & more.
And don't ever discount Toyota, they're bound to do something new & different in the next two years.

[boneil]

Nope ... but we do have Ford, GM and Toyota who will produce them AND kick the crap out of Rivian.
I'd put the $ on GM, especially since they have a very strong offering with Ultima and signed Honda.
Ford and GM have a very strong dealership network, # legacy customers, strong fleet sales & more.
And don't ever discount Toyota, they're bound to do something new & different in the next two years.

It's all about battery supply and software. Ford and GM may be too late to the game to hurt Rivian. I actually think there is a good chance of GM going bankrupt again. The ultium battery is all talk so far. Barra does a good job of talking it up for the last year but has yet to deliver on it. Rivian could hurt themselves for sure, only time will tell. Ford atleast has been real world testing their F150 but GM hasn't done anything. Atleast not seen by the public.

How much battery supply does anyone have under contract? And could Ford and GM quickly handle a change in battery chemistry and architecture? I'm doubtful. I bring that up because alot of battery supply is already locked up by Tesla and other Chinese EV makers and the battery makers are starting to change architecture to follow Tesla's lead with the 4680 cell design.

[boneil]

Rivian will get crushed. Lucid has a better chance.

Lucid can't even deliver a car with cruise control.

[boneil]

IN hindsight this may have been the easiest short ever. Rivian jacked up prices 20%, even on long term reservation holders. The $80K truck turned into a $100K over night. Many are cancelling, the chat boards are blowing up with pissed off reservation holders, even the Launch Edition holders who have been holding for 2 years are getting the price increase. And, (pure speculation) Ford will probably sell their shares of Rivian to fund their new EV business, for the upcoming split.

[idbefishing]

RIVN is at the bottom of its range from 1/24 to now, it can bounce or nobody knows how much lower it can go

[boneil]

The CEO just backtracked, and will honor the original pricing for reservation holders, but now there's another problem

If you have to raise prices 15-20% because of costs, and then you back track, you're telling us that you are going to lose 15-20% on every vehicle you sell over the next 2 years. Not only that, now you're showing a lack of judgement. Did you not expect the back lash from reservation holders?

I'm so glad I canceled my order when I did.

[djb750]

I'm so glad I canceled my order when I did.

You actually ordered one ??!! wow..

[boneil]

You actually ordered one ??!! wow..

Yup, I ordered one last year, the spring of 21. I canceled it because of the delays. I was suppose to get the truck about now, but then they said by end of 2023.

[bassnpro1]

Answer appears to be: YES

[mossie3]

Yeah I'd call going from $122 to $47 getting crushed.