Thinking about what returns may be over the next thirty years is probably impossible but if I could get 5% a year over inflation I would be pretty happy. Curious as to what everyone else would be happy with as I am watching some stock market surveys from various countries where investors believe they will get 17% over inflation each year. I don't think that is realistic long term.
With all of the free money being printed and handed out, I think inflation is going to be like the Jimmy Carter day’s. We are headed for a world of hurt.
I would retire today, If I could lock-in 5% return over inflation.
Where can I sign the paperwork?
17% is lunicy. Those years will occur, but usually after a period of steep decline.
I think I would retire today, if you could guarantee 5% return without inflation. May work some part-time for a few years for health insurance.
I have been thinking about this in a different way. How big can companies get? I remember when AAPL was at 500-750 billion market cap. I thought, how much bigger could it possibly get? $1 trillion? okay, but no way could it double any time soon......FB $1trillion......no way could that ever happen
I like to look at 5 and 10 years increments. Do you go with the winners? if Yes, does FB get to $5-10 trillion in the next ten years. Can AAPL become a $10 trillion company. Or do we go with a company like NVDA with a $500 billion market cap. We already know I'm all in on TSLA becoming the biggest company in the world in the next 10 years.
GOOGL and MSFT $5-10 trillion in the future?
In 20 years, what kind of market caps are we talking, $5 trillion was the cap or are we talking $50 trillion. Sounds outrageous, but $1 trillion sounded outrageous 20 years ago
Thanos was the hero
Your probably too young to remember when the NASDAQ hit 5000 and then tanked, taking the rest of the market with it. Are these Tech companies over valued? With the FED supporting the economy and handouts supporting 50% of the US citizens, what could possibly go wrong.Originally Posted by boneil
I have been thinking about this in a different way. How big can companies get? I remember when AAPL was at 500-750 billion market cap. I thought, how much bigger could it possibly get? $1 trillion? okay, but no way could it double any time soon......
I like to look at 5 and 10 years increments. Do you go with the winners? if Yes, does FB get to $5-10 trillion in the next ten years. Can AAPL become a $10 trillion company. Or do we go with a company like NVDA with a $500 billion market cap. We already know I'm all in on TSLA becoming the biggest company in the world in the next 10 years.
GOOGL and MSFT $5-10 trillion in the future?
In 20 years, what kind of market caps are we talking, $5 trillion was the cap or are we talking $50 trillion. Sounds outrageous, but $1 trillion sounded outrageous 20 years ago
Honestly, if you can get 6-7% over inflation, that's great. Right now inflation is listing around 2% with real inflation around 4%, 6-7% keeps you ahead of the game unless you just want mass growth and appreciation....
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The S&P 500 return over the last 50 years is 10.7%, adjusted for inflation the S&P returned 6.8%. For the last 10 years, average yearly returns have been 13.9% and 11.96% adjusted for inflation.
My IRA account's major investment is in a low cost S&P index fund. Seems I'm in good company. Warren Buffett said, “In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is to own the S&P 500 index fund,” which would track the S&P 500.
Last edited by Coastal Mountaineer; 08-04-2021 at 11:11 AM.
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I'm with yah. it's tough to beat a low fee, S&P 500 Index fund for long term, consistent returns.
The only problem with the S&P now it is is roughly 20% comprised of about 4 companies. I'm not sure if that is good or bad going forward but I don't think it is as diversified as it used to be in the past.
Nitro you are right. Moreso, if you look at the listing and weights of the companies in the top 10, note that google is listed twice due to it’s share class…so those two google entries should be summed together….adding to the concentration issue.
still I believe that the index is around 27%+ in tech w the balance in others…so this can arguably be considered relatively good in terms of diversification. It’s good to be aware of this nonetheless and manage it accordingly.
it’s one of the reasons I also hold a meaningful amount in small and medium cap dedicated funds.
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