Thread: Tesla value

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  1. #1
    idbefishing
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    Tesla value

    With what Ford revealed tonight and all of the other EV players making more affordable and better looking EV’s. I’m thinking TSLA value won’t be sky high anymore. Thoughts?

  2. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #2
    If you value TSLA as a car company only, then yeah, it's probably expensive.

    But I look at TSLA as a tech, energy company that also sells cars. A Ford EV will be just a car. A Tesla car is more like an Iphone, in terms of revenue streams and then add full self driving and possible revenue streams from that. Ford is not building power plants, power storage solutions, or the most advance AI, super computers and robots.

    The energy side of TSLA is in it's infancy.

    Also, Ford entering the EV market is a good thing for TSLA and here's why. Tesla doesn't advertise, most people don't know much about EV's and what they are capable of. Many people, just look at the lounge, immediately write off the idea of an EV. With Ford entering the market, people will start to think of EVs differently and then they will start to research. Tesla has the best batteries and the best tech by far. People will love Ford and the other car manufacturers, but eventually they will ask why the performance is sub par to a Tesla.
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  3. idbefishing
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    I think Tesla's market share of EV will go down because Ford is going to create a nice niche for themselves. If they already electrified their flagship vehicle, I can see other vehicles in their line up will follow. Other than the folks that want the model X just to say they own a 100K SUV. Most would go for a more economical and better looking electric Explorer, Expedition.
    Anyway, F leaps are cheap right now and I'm going to grab a few for fun.

  4. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #4
    Share of the EV market will go down, but the EV market is growing.
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    #5
    Ford cant even make the sync system work in their cars buying an entire EV from them seems scary to me at this phase lol

  6. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    This weekend should be a good example of TSLA's value. Beta testers are getting the new version of FSD with vision only tonight. Can't wait for the videos

    Basically for those who don't follow the story. Tesla is no longer using radar on their cars for the driver assistance safety features and full self driving. It's all done by using cameras only.
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    #7
    Quote Originally Posted by OHellnofishin View Post
    Ford cant even make the sync system work in their cars buying an entire EV from them seems scary to me at this phase lol
    That is what worries me about both GM and Ford. They don't have a great track record of execution. I would actually be more interested in Porsche, Audi Volkswagen due to the more rapid adoption of EV in Europe. I think many of these are set to be all electric by 2028 or sometime around there.

  8. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    What is this worth? https://bam.brookfield.com/press-rel...2021-200014929

    I think about AAPL. A company that is worth 2.4 trillion. But why? A company that has a cellphone in peoples hands and the services revenue that comes from the ecosystem around that cell phone. What kind of revenue can be made from services in a home that produces power, stores power, charges your vehicles, and even sells power back to the grid?

    I think it's easy to valuate the car business of TSLA, it's even easy to imagine what kind of services you can get from an ecosystem around the car. But what kind of services or apps could we imagine from a smart power home, or even a smart community.
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  9. idbefishing
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    That would be cool, big question is whether those houses are affordable

  10. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #10
    This thread marked the bottom of Tesla's dip. I thought we might see lower than $550 but I guess not.
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  11. Member Matt D's Avatar
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    #11
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    This thread marked the bottom of Tesla's dip. I thought we might see lower than $550 but I guess not.
    Been kicking myself for not adding more at this dip. Thanks for reminding me. ��

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt D View Post
    Been kicking myself for not adding more at this dip. Thanks for reminding me. ��
    Nahh, I remember sending an article about how the automotive market took off to my family. I remember the article showing an exponential curve. Price of TSLA when I sent that: $115.

    Seemed so speculative at the time…so many people chirping about it made me not want to invest as I have always hated the “next big thing” mentality. Stupid me for not thinking this through.

  13. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #13
    https://www.reuters.com/article/volk...-idUSKBN2H60CF


    Interesting article here.

    Theres some backstory here also. Apparently Musk wanted to hire Diess, VW's current CEO and Diess has in the past talked down to TSLA. But now there's a different tone. VW recently saw what Giga Berlin is capable of and is surprised and confused by how it's possible for TSLA to make a car in 10 hours when it takes VW 30 hours. They probably saw the giag press from Idra, the castings, the 4680 cells and crapped their pants. The atuo industry is in for rude awakening and VW may be the first to see it.

    There could be a relationship brewing here.
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  14. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    Let me just say. For as bullish as I am on TSLA, I do believe there is a really good chance of a serious decline in price due to FSD Beta. I think Tesla is making a mistake by adding so many beta testers so quickly, while Dojo is still in development. Watching some of the new beta testers it's obvious that some of these people are not ready for it. I think there is a good chance of a serious accident and that a string of accidents could cause the program to be temporarily shut down.
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  15. idbefishing
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    Crazy, only 3 months later and it’s flirting with $900.

  16. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #16
    28.8% margins on vehicles, with the giga Shanghai and Freemont using rear castings. Giga Texas and Berlin will use front and rear castings and structural battery packs. Margins will keep increasing. At a 1 million vehicle per year run rate now. Without Texas or Berlin. A good chance we are at a 2 million run rate by end of next year.

    And we're barely scratching the surface of energy.
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  17. Member
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    #17
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    28.8% margins on vehicles, with the giga Shanghai and Freemont using rear castings. Giga Texas and Berlin will use front and rear castings and structural battery packs. Margins will keep increasing. At a 1 million vehicle per year run rate now. Without Texas or Berlin. A good chance we are at a 2 million run rate by end of next year.

    And we're barely scratching the surface of energy.
    What is amazing to me is that they don't seem to be suffering from the chip shortages that the other manufacturers are facing. I would imagine with the technology in the car that it would use alot of chips but I could be wrong since they may be dealing with less mechanical components (emissions etc.)

  18. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #18
    What many get wrong about Tesla, is that they think of them as a car company. But they are a tech company. They're able to swap chips and rewrite the code for them. That's how they are dealing with the chip shortage, they are able to swap chips on the fly. Other car manufacturers don't t have the ability to rewrite code, they are dependent on their suppliers
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  19. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #19
    And because people see Tesla as a car company, they're completely missing the boat on what that robot meant. People think of Honda and their robots. No big deal. For Tesla that robot means a path toward AGI. When I listen to Tesla's head of AI, Karpathy, he's laying the path toward things you only see in futuristic sci-fi movies.

    It is impossible to envision what AGI, artificial general intelligence, means to humanity, and what it could be worth.
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  20. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
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    #20
    $$$$$$
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