Thread: Tesla value

Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 41 to 58 of 58
  1. idbefishing
    Guest
    #41
    Perhaps the small lots wouldn’t cause the price to drop hard.

  2. Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    6,934
    #42
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    A couple interesting things.

    The selling that he is doing was planned back in September according to the fillings. Also, he is selling only what is required to pay the taxes on the options that he is exercising. At the end of his selling, he will actually own more shares than he does today. Not sure why he is selling the way he is. He's selling shares in odd lots throughout the day. He could sell his shares with GS or some other bank in one lot, similar to a secondary. The bank would line up buyers of the shares for a discount and it would be done in one transaction.

    I'm not sure his motive for this method. I'm guessing one day we will find out.
    His selling strategy is definitely interesting. Maybe he's not a trader

  3. Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Location
    Schertz Tx
    Posts
    819
    #43
    His motive is to allow retail transparency is my guess. With whats been talked about and going on with so much re-routing to unlit exchanges he I BELIEVE is making sure these go lit.

  4. Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Hilton, NY 14468
    Posts
    4,359
    #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Bassmaster96 View Post
    His selling strategy is definitely interesting. Maybe he's not a trader
    Maybe he is just doing it to piss off Bernie Sanders like he said. When you are in that level of money, having fun pissing politicians is their kinda game.

    Musk does may things that only make sense to him based on his mood of the day.

  5. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,172
    #45
    People are analyzing Musk's tweets and by using numerology, coming to the conclusion that they will announce a split on 12/9. And some think 12/17.
    Thanos was the hero

  6. Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Hilton, NY 14468
    Posts
    4,359
    #46
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    People are analyzing Musk's tweets and by using numerology, coming to the conclusion that they will announce a split on 12/9. And some think 12/17.
    I am wondering if that is the same people claiming to know the end of the world many time already or the return of Christ many times already?

  7. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,172
    #47
    Cyber Truck orders reach 1.27 million or $80 billion worth of orders. Tell me there's no demand for an EV truck. I'm sure there will be cancellations and the reservation only cost $100 but still that's a few years of production.

    https://electrek.co/2021/11/23/tesla...n-value-tally/
    Thanos was the hero

  8. Member tcesni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Smith Mountain Lake, VA and a cottage in Ontario
    Posts
    11,602
    #48
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    A couple interesting things.

    The selling that he is doing was planned back in September according to the fillings. Also, he is selling only what is required to pay the taxes on the options that he is exercising. At the end of his selling, he will actually own more shares than he does today. Not sure why he is selling the way he is. He's selling shares in odd lots throughout the day. He could sell his shares with GS or some other bank in one lot, similar to a secondary. The bank would line up buyers of the shares for a discount and it would be done in one transaction.

    I'm not sure his motive for this method. I'm guessing one day we will find out.
    When you are a company officer and are selling shares to pay for the tax liability of exercising by shares, selling has to be on the open exchanges and not through a single transaction as you hypothesized. Transparency is important, especially for the ultimate insider as Musk is. His options are worth so much due to such a low basis , a few dollars here or there really doesn’t matter.

  9. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,172
    #49
    Starlink IPO announcement on 12/9???????????

    The 12/9 theory was a stock split, but Musk is leaving breadcrumbs about Starlink/SpaceX
    Thanos was the hero

  10. idbefishing
    Guest
    #50
    I’ll buy in both of those IPO’s

  11. Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Franklin, OH
    Posts
    5,801
    #51
    ON SALE!

  12. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,172
    #52
    Earnings slide deck

    https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/W...-update.pdf%22

    revenue grew by 65% even though they were chip constrained. They plan to grow the vehicle part of the business by over 50% in 22, and thats with only Fremont and Shanghai factories. Texas and Berlin production has started, waiting for certifications to start ramp of productions and deliveries will start this quarter. Auto margins of 29% and thats before the next gen factories start production, and before model Y with front and rear giga castings with structural battery pack with 4680 cells. Point being, margins will improve even more after Texas and Berlin get going. Theres a chance margins will take a hit in the next couple quarters while factories begin ramp, but I think that might be countered by prices being raised on cars. Almost $19 billion cash on hand.

    A little disappointed by the lack of news on other models and cyber truck. I thought it was strange the Musk wanted to talk about Optimus, the robot. I didn't think that was something till later this decade. But they are working on it now. Which makes me wonder about the progress of FSD. The fact that they are using engineering resources on the robot and not FSD tells me they think they are close to solving. Musk did say that he thinks FSD will be safer than a human driver by end of the year. We'll see. Heard that one before. He also talked about how once FSD is solved it will be a profound change for humanity. Some analysis think FSD could penetrate an $11 trillion TAM. Other analysis thinks it pie in the sky.

    The energy division of the company should really start to take off this year. Especially once the mega pack factory is complete. Mega pack is the energy storage system. They have a few them being installed now in California, Texas and other locations. This stuff worked really well in Australia.

    Personally I think they earn around $15 per share in 2022
    Thanos was the hero

  13. Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Tucson, AZ
    Posts
    2,159
    #53
    I believe they said no new models or truck in 2022, so they can catch up on production and orders of current stuff. Heard that on the radio earlier today....
    1994 Ranger 492VS
    2004 Optimax 225 - 0T920364
    6" Hydro Dynamics Manual Jack Plate
    24p Fury 4
    24v 47" Lowrance Ghost / Lowrance HDS


  14. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,172
    #54
    Quote Originally Posted by apenland01 View Post
    I believe they said no new models or truck in 2022, so they can catch up on production and orders of current stuff. Heard that on the radio earlier today....

    thats right. Why direct resources to a new model when many current models have a 6 month wait time and some even have a year long back log. I'm about 4 months into a 6 month wait for a model 3
    Thanos was the hero

  15. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,172
    #55
    I have been seeing on social media alot of investors got margin called. They saw the big delivery beat a few weeks ago and added to their positions with margin thinking the stock would go up with an expected earnings beat. Now they're upset and blaming Musk and the conference call for the sell off.

    Which got me thinking. I added to dips around the $1000 level, I know alot of others did as well. While the dip to $800 didn't cause any issues for me, It did get me thinking about how much of dip would cause an issue for me. I'm guessing alot of others are as well. There are plenty of long term TSLA bulls who are millionaires now who are using margin. Know way of knowing what their pain threshold price level is, but they all have one.

    My max pain level, the level I have to do something is about $500. At that point, I'm transferring money and buying more. But I'm able to. There's a point at which the "Teslaires" have to sell. I can't see $500 coming, but there is a way. I think every significant drop in price could cause a fresh wave of margin calls. And at $500 I believe we would be trading 33 times 2022 earnings. Not likely, but not impossible. China does something stupid and $500 is very possible.
    Thanos was the hero

  16. Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    16,927
    #56
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    I have been seeing on social media alot of investors got margin called. They saw the big delivery beat a few weeks ago and added to their positions with margin thinking the stock would go up with an expected earnings beat. Now they're upset and blaming Musk and the conference call for the sell off.

    Which got me thinking. I added to dips around the $1000 level, I know alot of others did as well. While the dip to $800 didn't cause any issues for me, It did get me thinking about how much of dip would cause an issue for me. I'm guessing alot of others are as well. There are plenty of long term TSLA bulls who are millionaires now who are using margin. Know way of knowing what their pain threshold price level is, but they all have one.

    My max pain level, the level I have to do something is about $500. At that point, I'm transferring money and buying more. But I'm able to. There's a point at which the "Teslaires" have to sell. I can't see $500 coming, but there is a way. I think every significant drop in price could cause a fresh wave of margin calls. And at $500 I believe we would be trading 33 times 2022 earnings. Not likely, but not impossible. China does something stupid and $500 is very possible.
    When COVID smacked into markets in early 2020, quite a few folks got into trouble.
    One, in particular, got jacked up and desperate, margin calls, he churned AND burned.
    $6M became $50,000. Not sure if he jumped from the bridge or simply drank Drano.

    Russia, COVID, Middle East, Taiwan ... IMO, there's a higher chance of bad than good.

  17. Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Coral Springs, Florida
    Posts
    10,865
    #57
    Quote Originally Posted by TampaJim View Post
    When COVID smacked into markets in early 2020, quite a few folks got into trouble.
    One, in particular, got jacked up and desperate, margin calls, he churned AND burned.
    $6M became $50,000. Not sure if he jumped from the bridge or simply drank Drano.

    Russia, COVID, Middle East, Taiwan ... IMO, there's a higher chance of bad than good.
    That is why when you look at all your holdings you have to really ask yourself honestly if you lost 50% of your entire portfolio and it took a few years to recover, how it would impact your life. If you are in your 20s and 30s or 40s and not leveraged then the answer is probably yes. If you are older than that, then it could impact your retirement plans. I remember people retiring early during the .com boom then having a very short retirement when the market fell.

  18. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,172
    #58
    Impressive earnings. The surprising part is the margins during the current environment. Whats even more surprising is that these margins happened before Texas and Berlin ramped production. Margins will improve drastically in 2023 2024.

    Bears are calling it fraud.

    On the call an analyst asked, " if projections are right, what will you do with the $500 billion of cash in 2030?". And that doesn't include, robo taxi, energy services, AI, or the robot. Tesla will run out of debt to pay off early this quarter. They're not gonna be able to spend cash fast enough. I think, they start buying back stock after the next stock split

    Tesla is in a league of it's own.
    Thanos was the hero

Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123