Covid, Fed Reserve, & Unemployment

[dvl2700]

So with the Federal Reserve bailing out the bond people, the Congress bailing out the businesses, my question is when the businesses get past the six month window for retaining/paying employees to meet the government mandate for not having to pay back the money, does anyone else see massive layoffs after this six month period ? Thinking the market is going to take a big hit just before that or during that period.

[boneil]

I think the hope is that we would be back to somewhat normal and have a treatment for the virus by the time the money runs out for business. Not so sure the virus will cooperate. Plus we have the election coming up. There's alot of uncertainty over the next several months.

There have been some pretty big announcements of layoffs the last few days, airlines and Wells Fargo.

[NitroZ7]

I think we have another wall of worry coming. The $600.00 unemployment bonus will end this month and with the cases increasing consumers may be wary. With the election coming up, I'm not sure that Congress will be in a cooperative mood to do something bi-partisan in the way of a stimulus bill. Lots of obstacles ahead. I'm not selling anything but I have trimmed some more to take some gains.

[apenland01]

I'm still just holding one position and I'm all cash other than that. I can't see any of the market being sustainable through the elections. At some point, unless there is a major government announcement, somethings got to give...

[Bassmaster96]

I sold one position at a loss today. I'm still holding another one that was supposed to be kind of a longer term hold, but I'm not very good at that. If it wasn't as red as it was I would have already sold it probably, and then I've got a couple that are actually longer term holds. I think I'll just keep daytrading and maybe play some momentum swings. I think we're going to fall down again before we hold the gains and continue up across the board.

[NitroZ7]

I'm seeing some headlines about the number of people that are behind on their mortgage payments and rent. I think the reality of this may start hitting home in the next few months. Alot of those forbearance agreements will require people to catch up all payments as soon as they expire. Hopefully they bought time in order to list the house if they can't afford it and payoff the mortgage at closing which would be the best case scenario.

[boneil]

https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1282133044749426689?s=20

There are only 2 fundamentals that matter to the overall stock market:1. How much money is there?2. How much does that money want to be invested?This chart shows that there can be a lag in how #1 works.



M2 is money supply

[apenland01]

If the stimulus money flows through the wealthy, it will end up in the stock market. If it goes straight to main street consumers and business owners, it will be spent in the general economy. Since nearly all the stimulus outside of the $1,200 and $600 unemployment went to large corporations and wealthy business owners, the excess went into the stock market. The vast majority of government spending has been on PPP and Fed intervention, which is for corporations and other wealthy business owners. PPP was intended for small business, but it didn't quite work as planned I don't think....