Page 1 of 9 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 167
  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Coral Springs, Florida
    Posts
    10,793

    Nervous About the Market

    Watched someone from RBC giving her analysis on the economy and she made a lot of sense. She said the market is assuming that the rate of change in unemployment will continue at the same rate we just saw but she thought that was misplaced. I think it makes sense that we had a big surge initially because we were coming from a high level of unemployment and low level of economic activity. I also think there may be a second wave of layoffs after the PPP period runs. Going to trim some positions tommorrow in Blackstone and Blackrock. Nothing big but just going to reduce and replace some cash which I spent on other investments so if we get a pullback I can add to some other positions.

  2. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,149
    #2
    I did some selling on Friday. I'm hesitant to go all in, on this market with the run we had and with the upcoming election and possible second wave.
    Thanos was the hero

  3. Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    6,932
    #3
    I'm hoping to do some selling tomorrow as well. We'll see. This market is really tough to play other than daytrades.

  4. Member Matt D's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Marion, OH
    Posts
    547
    #4
    I’m in the fence in this. Had been saying it felt like there should be another drop coming but the longer this run lasts it feels less likely for some reason? On the other hand the points you mention about such a fast recovery and if there is a big blow up if COVID you would think it would have to rock the market? Tempted to sell half of my positions to take some profit and have cash ready but yet be in the market on the other half Incase this thing just keeps running. Not sure yet which is correct mindset to take??

  5. Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2020
    Location
    Loudon, TN
    Posts
    345
    #5
    Market timing is tough. I was phasing in some cash, but did too slowly while waiting for second drop. Just decided to put some additional long term dollars into market. If we get another drop, can always add more.

    gotta expect market to be higher in five years.

  6. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,149
    #6
    Is the dumb money, retail investor now large enough to move the market? Cause the market is leaving the smart money, hedge fund investors behind. Cramer and others have been talking about all the well known big investors who are missing the move. Robinhood investors have been making bank. Robinhood shows what their clients are buying. They have been buying the cruiselines, uso, airlines.......
    Thanos was the hero

  7. Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Coral Springs, Florida
    Posts
    10,793
    #7
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    Is the dumb money, retail investor now large enough to move the market? Cause the market is leaving the smart money, hedge fund investors behind. Cramer and others have been talking about all the well known big investors who are missing the move. Robinhood investors have been making bank. Robinhood shows what their clients are buying. They have been buying the cruiselines, uso, airlines.......
    Could be smart money in there to. The machines are useful for trading shorter term trends and that is where they make money. Longer term they are not much better than people. They could be trading on short term momentum and when they decide to trade the other way then the machines will be able to reverse their positions quicker. I think they front run trades also so they could be looking at where the retail investors are investing and taking advantage of that. Most of the people I watch are still pretty cautious on the long term outlook because we do not know where the economy, unemployment levels and most importantly are going to be. This market could be extremely expensive, even tech bubble level expensive or it could be fairly valued depending on what earnings are going to be. As someone stated we were already late cycle and growth was slowing before COVID hit. I'm not selling anything but just trimming. Trimmed some Apple to where I just have 100 shares from 142 in one account, trimmed some BX by 70 shares and trimmed Blackrock by 5 shares just to get my cash position back to 20%. The election is also a few months away so I want to have some dry powder to put to use. When I feel more optimistic I usually have about a 10% cash position.

  8. Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    6,932
    #8
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    Is the dumb money, retail investor now large enough to move the market? Cause the market is leaving the smart money, hedge fund investors behind. Cramer and others have been talking about all the well known big investors who are missing the move. Robinhood investors have been making bank. Robinhood shows what their clients are buying. They have been buying the cruiselines, uso, airlines.......
    There have been some big sells in CCL today. Have you got to add yet?

  9. Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    6,932
    #9
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    Could be smart money in there to. The machines are useful for trading shorter term trends and that is where they make money. Longer term they are not much better than people. They could be trading on short term momentum and when they decide to trade the other way then the machines will be able to reverse their positions quicker. I think they front run trades also so they could be looking at where the retail investors are investing and taking advantage of that. Most of the people I watch are still pretty cautious on the long term outlook because we do not know where the economy, unemployment levels and most importantly are going to be. This market could be extremely expensive, even tech bubble level expensive or it could be fairly valued depending on what earnings are going to be. As someone stated we were already late cycle and growth was slowing before COVID hit. I'm not selling anything but just trimming. Trimmed some Apple to where I just have 100 shares from 142 in one account, trimmed some BX by 70 shares and trimmed Blackrock by 5 shares just to get my cash position back to 20%. The election is also a few months away so I want to have some dry powder to put to use. When I feel more optimistic I usually have about a 10% cash position.
    That's my thing too. I'm great with positions running up, but I really want dry powder for the next few months

  10. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,149
    #10
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    Could be smart money in there to. The machines are useful for trading shorter term trends and that is where they make money. Longer term they are not much better than people. They could be trading on short term momentum and when they decide to trade the other way then the machines will be able to reverse their positions quicker. I think they front run trades also so they could be looking at where the retail investors are investing and taking advantage of that. Most of the people I watch are still pretty cautious on the long term outlook because we do not know where the economy, unemployment levels and most importantly are going to be. This market could be extremely expensive, even tech bubble level expensive or it could be fairly valued depending on what earnings are going to be. As someone stated we were already late cycle and growth was slowing before COVID hit. I'm not selling anything but just trimming. Trimmed some Apple to where I just have 100 shares from 142 in one account, trimmed some BX by 70 shares and trimmed Blackrock by 5 shares just to get my cash position back to 20%. The election is also a few months away so I want to have some dry powder to put to use. When I feel more optimistic I usually have about a 10% cash position.

    Late cycle? That cycle ended. Are we at the beginning of a new bull market or just a bear market bounce? But how can it be a bear market bounce with new all time highs in the nasdaq, and almost even for the year in the S&P. Everybody that I watch is also cautious, except for one. But wasn't that the case at the beginning of the last bull market?, everybody cautious for several years while the market climbed?
    Thanos was the hero

  11. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,149
    #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Bassmaster96 View Post
    There have been some big sells in CCL today. Have you got to add yet?

    Yes at $24. but understand I have an average price of $12 after this add and plan to hold forever. My bet is that they eventually pay a dividend again. And at my price, it will be juicy
    Thanos was the hero

  12. Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    6,932
    #12
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    Yes at $24. but understand I have an average price of $12 after this add and plan to hold forever. My bet is that they eventually pay a dividend again. And at my price, it will be juicy
    Oh yeah, $12 avg for long term is freaking awesome. If it hits my day trade target I plan on selling today and watching again tomorrow. We'll see.

  13. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,149
    #13
    https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.html

    It's official, the bull market cycle ended in February 2020 and was the longest in history.
    Thanos was the hero

  14. Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Coral Springs, Florida
    Posts
    10,793
    #14
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    Late cycle? That cycle ended. Are we at the beginning of a new bull market or just a bear market bounce? But how can it be a bear market bounce with new all time highs in the nasdaq, and almost even for the year in the S&P. Everybody that I watch is also cautious, except for one. But wasn't that the case at the beginning of the last bull market?, everybody cautious for several years while the market climbed?
    The market is pricing in that and a perfect reopening. Anything goes wrong with the election or a second wave or even employment gains and all bets are off. Of course if they keep the stimulus money flowing that could prop it up enough through the election.

  15. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,149
    #15
    Quote Originally Posted by NitroZ7 View Post
    The market is pricing in that and a perfect reopening. Anything goes wrong with the election or a second wave or even employment gains and all bets are off. Of course if they keep the stimulus money flowing that could prop it up enough through the election.

    I think the Fed is the biggest issue. How soon they pull the punch bowl or slow it down? Maybe we get some hints Wednesday. I think the other issues, a second wave, election and employment is secondary and will simply cause a a range bond market.
    Thanos was the hero

  16. Member Hez's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2017
    Location
    Apopka, FL
    Posts
    2,886
    #16

    Wishin' I was fishin'...


    1990 Ranger 374v
    1996 175 HP Mariner - Magnum EFI
    25p Tempest - A45 model
    80 lb 24v MinnKota Maxxum
    Humminbird Helix 10
    Humminbird Helix 7
    Garmin EchoMap 106sv w/ LS
    Dual 8' Power Poles



  17. Stocks/Investments Moderator boneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Aberdeen, MD
    Posts
    12,149
    #17
    Looking at the posts in the lounge.............be nervous be very nervous.

    Also, the retail investor on social media are all rich now and the market can't go down. Alot of chest pounding and mocking Buffet and Icahn. I kind of agree that the old timers are probably past their prime, but they didn't become billionaires being stupid.
    Thanos was the hero

  18. Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2020
    Location
    Loudon, TN
    Posts
    345
    #18
    I bought some yesterday....so far down big today. But, I invested the $ for the long term, so will have to do a look-back in five years. I did sell some before the drop and re-invested cash in the lows. That was HARD to do, but now I wish that I had invested more.

  19. Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Coral Springs, Florida
    Posts
    10,793
    #19
    Quote Originally Posted by boneil View Post
    Looking at the posts in the lounge.............be nervous be very nervous.

    Also, the retail investor on social media are all rich now and the market can't go down. Alot of chest pounding and mocking Buffet and Icahn. I kind of agree that the old timers are probably past their prime, but they didn't become billionaires being stupid.
    Once you are a billionaire you don't need to gamble as much. Just keep hitting singles over the long term and you may have more runs than a home run hitter.

    It is probably better for beginning investors to lose some money in the beginning so they learn to manage risk. I have a feeling we may be creating another group of investors that are going to be similar to the ones that we had in the tech bubble where people bought anything that was associated with the internet. I looked at a long term chart on Cisco and its price has never returned to the price it was trading at in 2000. I mean people are buying companies in Bankruptcy Heck even the guys at Blackstone would take a month to do an in depth analysis before even buying the bonds of a bankrupt company at a discount.

  20. Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    6,932
    #20
    I'm happy with the selling that I done yesterday. I'm considering adding on the red today, but I don't know, with the big run, we could see a couple days of red I think. Curious to see what PLAY is going to do after the earnings call today.

Page 1 of 9 123 ... LastLast