The Classic and Covid-19

[Mark Jones]

I’ll bite. I was watching the numbers leading up to the Classic. The day before the US was at 200 cases and I assumed we were testing maybe 20%, so possibly 1000 cases in the US at the time. Knowing what I know now, and projecting back from how many died 18 days later, I would say there were more like 10,000 total cases. 330M/10k gives 1 in 33,000 people had it. 122,000 attendance/33,000 = ~4 people with it. But then, looking at the current total deaths, Alabama has just 9 of 3700+. 4*9/3700 gives ~.01 people. And then consider how likely one would have had a severe case. The probability of finding a direct link is approaching zero quickly. But anything is possible.

Good post. I tend to agree that anyone's risk of exposure was VERY low at that point in time but as you noted, you'd think there would have been a small amount of cases. Regardless, I'm thankful there's not and that the timing worked out. It does make for some interesting discussion though, as many here have stated that they believe the virus has been here for quite some time. Over time we should get more answers back from the data.

[Mark Jones]

the worst I saw was a slight backlash from JW's BBQ one night and that was it!

Lol

[Basser100]

I don't believe what everyone is saying that happened in January was the virus. There is always a early winter bronchitis that pass's around each year that is not the flu. If the virus had passed around back then there would have been alot more people dying then and in need of much more medical care. My daughter had that crud back then and tested negative for the flu but no one else caught it from her. The way this stuff spreads and how serious it is that was no more than bug that went around like we have every year.

[Mark Perry]

I don't believe what everyone is saying that happened in January was the virus. There is always a early winter bronchitis that pass's around each year that is not the flu. If the virus had passed around back then there would have been alot more people dying then and in need of much more medical care. My daughter had that crud back then and tested negative for the flu but no one else caught it from her. The way this stuff spreads and how serious it is that was no more than bug that went around like we have every year.

A lot of Doctors here sure did not think it was bronchitis or some bug.