I had to re read the article in order to wrap my mind around this but they said we could lose between 800,000 and 5 million jobs in the April employment numbers. They said the worst month during the financial crisis was 800,000 jobs lost.
I had to re read the article in order to wrap my mind around this but they said we could lose between 800,000 and 5 million jobs in the April employment numbers. They said the worst month during the financial crisis was 800,000 jobs lost.
Jobs lost, or laid off? Either way, that's not good
I had read next weeks unemployment numbers could be 2 million or higher. 5 million is very doable for Aprils numbers. Not sure how we can even begin to bottom in the market with those numbers coming. We don't know when this ends, how this ends and how to jump start the economy back up. I think we are looking at a few months of checks in the mail.
THERE GOES NEW YORK
Thanos was the hero
I’m not sure if retail will survive this. I looked at REITs today and they have been pounded. Simon has a 15% yield but I wouldn’t touch it with a 10 foot pole.
I have CNBC on most of the day and they were commenting about without gov't support there will only be 3 retailers left, AMZN, COST and WMT. Going to be a different landscape after all this.
Thanos was the hero
Yep. And online ordering and remote work is probably going to expand as people become accustomed to using it. The commercial real estate landscape is going to change as well.Originally Posted by boneil
I was wondering how this will affect online platforms in the future. Will it help eBay, etsy, and the like? How about shipping services like Fedex?
I know the market is forward looking, always attempting to predict the future, I understand that part. However, it is really hard for me to imagine that what is coming is already baked into pricing. The jobless claims are going to be staggering. Also, the amount of bankruptices, both in the business community and individually, is also going to be a number that all of us alive today have never seen. I cannot predict the bottom, but IMHO, we are not there yet. I hope I am wrong.
What we cannot obtain from intelligence, we can learn from experience.
Lot of small businesses WILL fail...make up such a large portion of overall employment of workforce
2012 Stratos 189 VLO/150 Mercury Pro XS/MinnKota Terrova
And all sectors are just getting hit including staples and utilities. The only thing I can think is people are now selling the things where they still have a profit in order to raise cash. It is jumping from sector to sector day by day. And now there are worries in the junk and corporate bond market.
Agreed 200xp. We know for the most part what the future holds. We know huge unemployment numbers like never before, millions. We know GDP will be negative. We knew there was a good chance of city lockdowns, we have the biggest cities now closed down. The only thing we don't know is duration. My guess is that this is somewhat over by the summer, and we need to understand the real possibility that in a week or two, things aren't as bad as they thought they would be. How much worst can it get? 6 months or more? In that case we're screwed and I'm gonna have to start guarding my garden.
My guess, base line scenario is priced in. What we are seeing now is forced selling because of leverage and margin calls. I think we also see more retail selling, cashing out retirement accounts to raise cash, next couple of weeks.
I think we need to be prepared for the possibility that in 2-4 weeks, theres a victory announcement. That all the social distancing and shutting down the economy worked. Just a thought on what could happen.
Thanos was the hero
Boneli...I hope you are right, I hope like hell we have a V bottom in the market and that the Citizens of this country are spared the worse of the virus. But, do you think a -15 to -20% GDP Q2 is baked in right now? Futhermore, first quarter reports are going to start coming out in April, and if the market thinks it is baked in and they see something worse, down we go again...just kind of want to get other peoples thoughts.
I will say, if there is a victory announcement in 2-4 weeks, we will see an up day that has never been recorded or even thought possible.
I will say part two, I love Vegas...and whenever the all clear announcement finally comes, I will be on the first plane to Vegas to party and celebrate with my fellow Americans.
What we cannot obtain from intelligence, we can learn from experience.
If you and me are talking about it then all of wall street was talking about it days ago, so they already positioned for it. Earnings will be thrown out, and there will be few companies who offer any guidance. Even if the do give guidance it's worthless. The only thing of value will be companies comments on China.
Now if Congress doesn't have a deal reached by Monday morning the market tanks and keeps tanking until a deal is reached. It better be big and bold.
While I think a negative GDP for Q2 is priced in, I think it comes with the thought of a rebound for Q3. If the market starts thinking we don't rebound in Q3 then we need to go lower.
Thanos was the hero
I would think Home Depot or similar will survive. Can’t imagine getting lumber from Amazon
I'd go straight to the sawmill before I'd buy lumber from Amazon
I think all you guys are overly optimistic, this is gonna be a years long event.
Thats not priced in.
And yes I am trying to be optimistic.
Thanos was the hero
If I was watching MSNBC I would agree with you, but I have been watching the daily briefings from the Presidents team. With them being on the front lines, I think I will go with their opinions. I am praying for a month, or less.
I’ve worked for Marriott for nearly 32 years and manage a hotel. The layoffs are staggering. I put nearly 75% of my team on temporary layoffs this week. Worst week of my career. Above property we are furloughing 80% of our workforce. The hotel industry is decimated.
1999 Stratos 273 Vindicator 2013 Yamaha 150hp HPDI Vmax
Travel industry will be upside down for quite some time I'm afraid. Until companies start traveling for business again and all these lockdown orders are lifted, there is simply no revenue for the travel related businesses. I am so sorry for my friends and family that work in these businesses.
The other thing is that many of these hotels and businesses are leveraged among many properties. There will be much pain over the next couple of months.
1994 Ranger 492VS
2004 Optimax 225 - 0T920364
6" Hydro Dynamics Manual Jack Plate
24p Fury 4
24v 47" Lowrance Ghost / Lowrance HDS
Reply With Quote